who will be the first to replace bits with qubits?

Quantum computers are a technology that can bring the computing power of technology to a fundamentally new level. This will make it possible to make huge breakthroughs in almost all sciences and areas of life – pharmaceuticals, chemistry, cryptography, as well as mitigate the climate crisis. Tech giants, start-ups and research institutes are battling to develop the first such machine, but so far have managed to create only low-powered prototypes and theoretical models. We understand why quantum computing is so attractive and what obstacles stand in the way of it.

What is a quantum computer

Quantum computers are a fundamentally new generation of computing devices that, unlike today’s electronic machines – from personal laptops to powerful supercomputers from scientific centers – operate on the basis of the laws of quantum mechanics, and not classical physics. We will tell you more about how they are arranged a little later.

The technology of quantum computers is not intended to replace the PCs we are used to, but will allow us to solve a whole range of tasks much more efficiently. Processors built on the principles of quantum mechanics make it possible to greatly increase the density of information storage and the speed of computational operations, which means performing complex calculations that are inaccessible to ordinary computers, including supercomputers.

The main area, the future of which is associated with quantum processors, is crypto-encryption. Supposedthat in the coming years there will be a quantum computer that will be able to crack all current Internet data protection protocols in just a few hours.

To take advantage of this, spy agencies and intelligence agencies are already storing all the available data stream in order to decrypt it and gain access to other people’s secrets. “We see how our opponents do it – copy our encrypted data and just store it,” explains Dustin Moody, mathematician responsible for post-quantum encryption standards in the US. That is why in 2022 Joe Biden instructed by 2035, transfer all strategically important information into new encryption protocols built on quantum mechanics.

Modern IBM quantum computer Source

Modern IBM quantum computer Source

Quantum computing is a very complex technology that, at the very beginning of development, had to be fixed at least in the most primitive, but stable forms. Therefore, the first prototype of a quantum device, submitted IBM in 2001 was only able to find the factors of 15 (these are 3 and 5) – even a high school student can handle such a task. Nevertheless, the invention was an important step in the development of the industry, showing that quantum computing is possible not only in speculative models.

Today, quantum computers can perform much more complex mathematical tasks related to factorization of numbers, but this is still not enough for developers. To measure the effectiveness of developments in this area, the famous physicist John Preskill introduced concept quantum supremacy. This is the performance level of a quantum computer that will allow it to solve a problem faster than any supercomputer can. This is exactly what the developers of quantum processors are trying to achieve. Today, they are close to quantum superiority, but have not yet completely reached it.

How does a quantum computer work?

Quantum computing is a very complex thing. Even John Clauser, one of the pioneers of the direction, used to say: “To this day, I confess that I still do not understand quantum mechanics.” By that time, the researcher had been working on this topic for more than a decade.

The scientific community remained skeptical about quantum physics for many years – few believed that this direction could bring real benefits to humanity. In 2022, Klauser, a student of the legendary Richard Feynman who had studied quanta since the late 1960s, finally received the Nobel Prize in Physics in the company of two other scientists. This recognition finally put an end to the long-term debate about the potential of this direction.

If classical computers use bits to store and process information, then quantum computers are built on qubits (they are also q-bits or quantum bits). Bits can take the value 0 or 1 and store all data in binary code, then the qubits can be in the state superpositions – simultaneously have the value 0 and 1 until they are measured in real time. The most obvious example is the famous Schrödinger’s Cat, which is both alive and dead until the moment we observe it.

Due to the property of superposition, qubits contain both 0 and 1 at the same time.  Source

Due to the property of superposition, qubits contain both 0 and 1 at the same time. Source

For the first time, a theoretical model of such a device was proposed almost simultaneously in 1980-1981 by the Soviet physicist Yuri Manin and his legendary American colleague Richard Feynman. The next important milestone can be considered the discovery by the British physicist and mathematician Peter Shore of the algorithm named after him in 1994. This is what allows a quantum computer to quickly factorize large integers.

Qubits in processors are interconnected by means of quantum entanglement – a state in which the quanta are so interconnected that one can judge the state of the others by the position of one. Moreover, entangled particles affect each other’s state at a speed faster than the speed of light, that is, virtually instantaneously. Moreover, these changes do not depend on how far they are located. It was this principle that Albert Einstein challenged at the dawn of quantum science as impossible from the point of view of classical physics (and turned out to be wrong).

The main indicator that quantum chip developers brag about in scientific publications is the number of qubits in a computer. Scientists called this approach is a simplification, since it does not always reflect the real ability of the device to solve problems. However, it is believed that a stable computer of several thousand qubits, performing operations with a minimum number of errors, will be able to outperform the most powerful electronic counterparts. The developments of recent years have for the first time reached an indicator of several hundred qubits, which has significantly brought humanity closer to quantum superiority.

The maximum number of qubits in a computer by year.  Source

The maximum number of qubits in a computer by year. Source

An important feature of quantum computers is that qubits remain stable only at extremely low temperatures (-273.15 °C, or absolute zero Kelvin). Therefore, a separate important area of ​​development is freezers for their storage. One of the latest breakthrough inventions in this area is the Icebox device, presented in 2022 by Denver startup Maybell Quantum. Thanks to flexible quantum wires, it protects qubits from external influences.

Icebox quantum refrigerator.  Source

In addition, quantum computers require separate software. How notes The CEO of the American startup Classiq, Amir Minerbi, “whoever waits for the invention of an efficient quantum computer and does not develop software, will lose the quantum race.”

How quantum computing will change the world

Quantum machines are planned to be used in any areas where the power and speed of classical supercomputers are not enough to effectively solve problems.

For example, in addition to encryption and decryption of data, they promise humanity a real breakthrough in all areas related to the development of chemical formulas – for example, in the production of new drugs and vaccines. As the experience of the COVID-19 pandemic has shown, time is of the essence in this area.

In addition, quantum computers will enable the simulation of optimal formulas for household and industrial chemicals, biodegradable plastics, or carbon-free aviation fuel. For example, in 2019 researchers predictedthat with just 1,000 qubits, it will be possible for the first time to accurately simulate the optimal method of producing ammonia for agriculture with minimal carbon dioxide emissions. Today, this industry is one of the most harmful for the environment.

By opinion McKinsey experts, in addition to pharmaceuticals and industrial chemistry, the new generation of computers will primarily be used in the automotive industry, finance, as well as the development of biology and related sciences. “We have good reason to believe that a quantum computer will be able to effectively simulate any process that occurs in nature,” — explains Coltech theoretical physicist John Preskill. scientist even believesthat computers of tens of thousands of qubits can discover new laws of physics that are inaccessible to observation at the current level of technological development.

A significant breakthrough is also expected in the areas of transport and logistics: the power of quantum computers will make it possible to calculate optimal routes for complex systems with a large number of external factors. Researchers also supposethat such processors will help improve AI learning algorithms, finally making complex and large-scale unmanned vehicle systems a daily reality. The German concern Volkswagen is already actively cooperates with Canadian quantum startup D-Wave to bring these technologies to life.

At the same time, polar opinions about the prospects of qubit machines are still expressed in the scientific community. “Some say that no one needs quantum computing, it will never work, and quantum computers cannot be built <...>, but there are hyper-optimistic colleagues who are trying to use a quantum computer for everything and solve any problems” – notes Alexey Fedorov, head of the scientific group at the Russian Quantum Center.

This paradoxical situation is probably due to the fact that we still do not know much about the principles and possibilities of quantum mechanics. The scientist himself advocates a compromise approach and believes that innovation can qualitatively improve the solution of a certain range of problems, but some of the hypotheses may turn out to be wrong over time. Until quantum supremacy is achieved, we do not know for sure in which areas the new generation of computers will actually be able to make a breakthrough. We will talk about which companies and organizations are leading the quantum race in our next article.

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