What's going on in Europe? How will this affect relocation and where to go now?

Hello everyone! This is Zhenya from Movly. In this post, I decided to share my view on the situation in Europe (and not only), touch on politics a little and talk about what's going on with relocation. I'll also try to answer the question: where is it good to live now and where should I go? Spoiler: where we are not.

This article is just one of the views on the world situation. Of course, I will try to support my arguments with figures, but I will not do without a subjective opinion either. If you have something to add, and you agree or disagree with my opinion – you are always welcome in the comments.

What's going on with the world? Where is it all going?

Back at university, we actively studied the processes of globalization as a kind of driver of the world economy, which inevitably changes all spheres of our lives: from communication to finance and much more, and brings people, cities and countries closer together. Even then (by the way, this was not so long ago. Yes, I am still quite young!), everyone began to talk about deglobalization as a kind of new phenomenon that will inevitably occur as soon as the world economy begins its new cycle.

Actually, we most likely got into this cycle. And if we move away from abstruse economic terms, you can find signs of that very deglobalization in almost everything (from increasingly intense political showdowns between countries, victories of right-wing parties in elections in Europe, to the popularization of local services, communities, food and everything else). And in general, have you noticed what a trend there is now in the world for local topics (from farm products to closed communities. Compare with 2000-2010: Instagram, Facebook, dating sites, etc. etc.

By the way, regarding economic cycles, I highly recommend the book Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed or Fail by Ray Dalio (by the way, he is a smart guy and the founder of Bridgewater – one of the 10 largest hedge funds in the US, although in his old age he decided to become a publicist). But the article is not about the economy and cycles, and this mention is only to give you Dalio's forecasts about our future.

Dalio, based on his calculations and indices, predicted many events that are happening now. Like the strengthening of BRICS, the development of China's technological leadership and the penetration of the UnionPay system into Russia. But most importantly, he predicted the end of the current economic cycle, the crisis we are currently in, as well as the political and economic conflicts that are happening now and, unfortunately, will most likely continue to happen in the next 5-10 years, and maybe even 15 years.

So our fate was certainly not enviable, although of course it could have been worse (let's not forget about World War II and the crisis, the wild 90s, the collapse of the ruble and dollar and everything else). In general, life in the world has always been difficult, but 2010-2020 were quite successful and calm for the whole world.

Will it get even worse and where will it all go, I certainly can’t predict, and no one can know for sure, but you always need to prepare for all possible options.

Perhaps now is not the best time to build startups, attract investments, invest and take risks, but nevertheless, all these opportunities still exist, and since we cannot influence the situation in any way, we can and should try, but always have a plan B and a cushion for a rainy day!)

My opinion is that the world will be in turmoil for another 5 years, maybe even 10, and it is better to plan for this in advance than to expect that tomorrow will be a better time. The most obvious ones are: financial crises, military conflicts, high inflation, a decrease in people's purchasing power and general tension in society.

From my recent observations, I realized that in bad times, things get worse almost everywhere. I won't say much about Russia, we all know it ourselves, but for the sake of transparency I will add that in the USA, too, things are much worse now than they were 10 years ago (the country has now deteriorated greatly due to the financial crisis, poverty, petty crime, a new wave of drug addiction has begun, social tensions and local conflicts and showdowns have worsened – well, you've seen it yourself). Europe also has its own problems (most of the EU is experiencing problems with migrants, the growth of right-wing sentiments, unemployment, and so on). That is why the search for the ideal location for life also needs to be approached taking these inputs into account – at the end of the article I will share my approaches to this process.

However, it was not for nothing that I mentioned economic cycles and the good news is that good times will come sooner or later anyway and the only question is how and in what condition you will enter these times.

What's going on in Europe? How bad is it and is the West rotten?

Now let's talk about Europe. I'll say right away that I love Europe, I live in France and am happy with the choice I made, but I think that problems should not be hushed up, on the contrary, they should be illuminated in order to create a correct picture of what is happening.

Europe is currently actively facing challenges to its internal unity. For example, in countries such as Poland and Hungary, conflicts with the EU arise over the rule of law and democratic standards. Many countries are unhappy with the existing mechanisms of financing, decision-making, and so on. By the way, all this is also directly related to the economy, because when it is flourishing, everyone is happy and does not ask questions, but as soon as there is less money, there are immediately those who are deprived and dissatisfied (this is normal)

Also, all the problems related to migration and refugees are becoming more and more urgent, especially against the backdrop of conflicts in the Middle East and Africa. They further increase the social rift within society. In various EU countries, there is an increasing growth of populist and nationalist sentiments, which affects the political landscape. You don’t have to look far for an example here – look at the recent elections in Germany and France.

All this, by the way, is a consequence of the problems of the relatively calm 2010-2015s, when Europe cheerfully and happily let a bunch of migrants into its territory.

This whole growth of right-wing movements is in fact also absolutely understandable and even natural. Similarly with market mechanisms, when rapid economic growth is replaced by stagnation or adjustment, an active left agenda sooner or later leads to the strengthening of the right, and then everything starts a second time.

The victories of right-wing parties in Europe are a direct reaction to the accumulated problems with migration. In Europe, right-wing political forces often express their opinion on a number of key issues. In France and Germany, in particular, the main topics that the right opposes are:

Immigration – Right-wing forces in France, such as the National Rally (formerly the National Front), advocate for a stricter immigration policy, border control and limiting the influx of migrants. Parties such as the Alternative for Germany (AfD) oppose the open-door policy towards migrants and refugees introduced by Angela Merkel in 2015. They demand stricter immigration laws. In both cases, by the way, we are talking mainly about refugees and low-skilled labor, so all the IT guys can breathe a sigh of relief, this will most likely not affect them at all.

Globalization – Criticism of economic globalization and free trade, protection of national producers and agriculture from international competition. This was already discussed at the beginning of the article.

Islamization – Right-wing parties often express concern about the growing Muslim population and the possible impact on French/German and other cultures and identities. They call for strict adherence to the secular principles of the state.

Most likely, this will ultimately lead to the introduction of stricter laws and restrictions, which, according to the deglobalization agenda, will make the EU more closed to everyone (except, of course, those whom they themselves call and wait for: entrepreneurs, skilled workers, scientists, and so on.

What Will Happen to Europe? How Big Is This Problem?

Of course, I will not downplay the scale of this problem for the country and for society as a whole, but nevertheless I will say that it is worth separating politics and news from real life.

During my life in Europe, I can say that none of the above problems have affected me either directly or indirectly. Moreover, all these problems exist for me only on the Internet and in the news. And I am sure that I am not the only one. After all, everyday life, as a rule, is little affected by macroeconomic and even political upheavals, and if you do not watch the news and do not actively participate in protests, you may not even know about all these problems.

Europe remains one of the best places to live, work and do business thanks to its high standards of living, developed infrastructure and more or less stable economy.

According to the UN Human Development Index 2023, many European countries such as Norway, France, Switzerland, Spain and Ireland are among the leaders in providing their citizens with high levels of education, health care and life expectancy. In addition, the European Union actively promotes social security policies, which provide a high level of protection and support for all citizens.

Europe also offers favorable conditions for business. According to the World Bank's Doing Business 2023 ranking, European countries such as Denmark, the United Kingdom, and Sweden are among the top ten places in the world to do business, thanks to effective regulatory frameworks and a stable economic environment.

In Denmark, for example, the process of registering a business takes only 3.5 days, which is one of the shortest in the world. The European Union also provides access to a market of more than 450 million consumers, which opens up significant opportunities for expansion and growth. Combined with highly developed infrastructure and a skilled workforce, Europe remains an attractive place to invest and do business.

So, despite the problems, life in Europe is still very comfortable and stable. And if you don't follow politics very actively, it's also calm. However, it won't suit everyone, I highly recommend reading my an article about the peculiarities of the development of digital services and cultural and business customs.

Where to go? Is it worth going at all? And how to choose a country for relocation

There is no ideal place to live, and that’s okay. Everyone has their own ideas of comfort and well-being. For some, the ideal is the sunny beaches of Spain, while for others, it’s the dynamic cities of Germany. And not everyone needs to move at all. Sometimes the most important and valuable things are right under your nose, in your hometown or country.

Also, remember that moving is not only an opportunity, but also a challenge. Adapting to a new culture, language, and environment can take time and effort. If you are happy with your current life and see opportunities for growth in your current location, moving may not be necessary. Ultimately, the most important thing is to find a balance between your desires and your opportunities, whether in a new country or in the place you already call home.

When it comes to choosing a country to live in, relying only on statistics and political news is like choosing a car by its color. It is important to consider your own desires, goals and priorities. What is more important to you: a warm climate, developed infrastructure or the ability to quickly learn a language? For example, if you dream of a career in the tech industry, countries like Germany, France or the Netherlands can offer excellent opportunities, because Germany is home to many leading IT companies.

In difficult times, it is especially important that a country is safe, has potential for career or business development, and offers comfortable conditions for the family. Take France, for example: the crime rate is relatively low, which ensures safety for you and your loved ones. Moreover, France is a center of fashion, art, and innovation, which opens up many opportunities for professional growth. And with high-quality education and healthcare, your children will grow up in favorable conditions.

So when choosing a country to live in, think about what is important to you. Statistics can give you a general picture, but your personal goals and desires will help you find the perfect place to feel at home.

P.S.

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