UN forecast for peak population
About 20 years ago, the topic that humanity is multiplying very quickly was discussed quite often on TV. And that at such a rate, we will soon be covered by a wave of overpopulation of the planet and will have to kill each other in the fight for goods. However, explosive growth should not be expected. And the rate of increase in the planet's population is gradually decreasing. Its limits and collisions along the way are described in the UN forecast.
At the time of publication, there are approximately 8,123,000,000 people on Earth. The total number has reached a historical peak. But birth rates and fertility levels continue to fall, and the peak of human population is getting closer.
Current state of population
The article is based on a report from the UN Population Division “World Population Prospects to 2024“, which examines historical population estimates and offers a number of forward-looking projections based on available information.
As you can see from the graph, birth rates on all major continents have fallen sharply since the 1960s.
Researchers point to the following factors contributing to this:
Access to contraception and abortion procedures.
Higher level of female education.
Changing social structures and religious beliefs.
Economic prosperity and expanded lifestyle choices.
Urbanization.
The high cost of raising children.
In any case, the birth rate is already lower than the death rate in many developed countries, including the US, UK, Germany, China and even India. In contrast, the birth rate peaks in Niger, with 6.06 live births per woman, while South Korea suffers, with 0.72 live births per woman. Africa as a continent, on average, dominates the world's birth rates.
Forecast for the coming decades
On a global scale, the UN estimates that the Earth's population of 8.1 billion is not the limit. And the number will continue to grow for several decades, peaking at 10.29 billion around 2084.
Total population of the world, historical and projected. United Nations Population Division
The result will be a population that looks much older overall. And here is where analytics starts to tread on shaky ground. Medical science and anti-aging technology promise to extend life in general, using the potential of biohacking.
We are also talking about increasing the functional period of life, as advocated by transhumanism theory. Many believe that the first millennial human has already been born, and that as a species we may well outpace death itself in the coming decades. Becoming a new species, as it is described concept of posthumanism.
Delving deeper into the wilds
Neural networks, humanoids, synthesis of robotics and grown brainsas well as superhuman intelligence and self-optimizing systems. Klaus Schwab describes the prospects for such developments in his book “The Fourth Industrial Revolution,” and Elon Musk has a similar vision. In his view, the economic and manufacturing sectors can grow even as the population and workforce shrink.
Smart robots will take care of the old and infirm when there aren't enough young people around to do the job, and the rest of us can live a life of leisure. But I personally already think that vision is utopian.
On the one hand, abundance provides the resource for having children. On the other hand, we will soon be able to have sex with intelligent robots, who are quite convincing, attentive, responsive and pleasant partners and have zero risk of pregnancy.
The Technological Singularity is upon us. We are stepping onto an event horizon where all past experience turns to dust and predictions of the future have never been less reliable than they are today. But it is certainly interesting to appreciate the size and spread of our species from a global perspective.
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