sales of PCs and laptops are declining much faster than analysts’ forecasts
In the fall of 2022, we published an article
“Nowhere below? Sales of PCs and laptops are falling much faster than forecasted values
. It said that the dynamics of sales compared to 2021 is negative, and the fall is ahead of the most pessimistic forecasts of analysts.
But it turned out that “there is where below,” so to speak. The fall continues, and its speed, as far as can be judged, is increasing. According to the analytical agency IDC, in the fourth quarter of 2022, sales of PCs and laptops fell by 28.1%. Details are under the cut, we will also talk about the reasons for such a fall and the possible prospects for desktops and laptops in 2023.
How bad is it?
The fall is really fast. From October 1 to December 31, the desktop and laptop market collapsed by about 28.1%. This figure was obtained by analyzing the sales dynamics of the largest PC vendors in the world. And yes, we are not talking about finances yet, we are talking about sales of devices in pieces. Analysts studied the dynamics of sales of all devices that fit the definition of “personal computer”. For the fourth quarter of 2022, the total number of devices sold was 67.2 million, which is not so much, given the size of the market.
A drop in sales is observed in all companies – some have more, some have less. Almost everyone got a drop of several tens of percent, except for Apple, which managed to “sag” in sales by only 2.1%.
Top 5 PC vendors, Q4 2022 (Preliminary estimates, million units)
Company
Deliveries 4Q22
Market share 4Q22
Deliveries 4Q21
Market share 4Q21
4Q22/4Q21 Growth
1.Lenovo
15.5
23.0%
21.6
23.1%
-28.5%
2 HP Inc.
13.2
19.6%
18.6
19.9%
-29.0%
3. Dell Technologies
10.8
16.1%
17.2
18.4%
-37.2%
4 Apple
7.5
11.2%
7.7
8.2%
-2.1%
5.ASUS
4.8
7.2%
6.1
6.5%
-20.9%
Other
15.4
22.9%
22.3
23.9%
-31.0%
Total
67.2
100.0%
93.5
100.0%
-28.1%
Source: IDC, January 10, 2023
According to analysts, the situation is so complicated that it can be compared with the same period in 2018 – if you remember, then the shortage of Intel chips began to actively develop. If we take not the last quarter of 2022, but the entire reporting period, then in total about 292.3 million personal computers were shipped. This is much less than in 2021, when vendors shipped 350 million PCs.
Top 5 PC Vendors Entire 2022 (Preliminary estimates, million units)
Company
Deliveries in 2022
Market share in 2022
Deliveries in 2021
2021 Market share
2022/2021 Growth
1.Lenovo
68.0
23.3%
81.8
23.4%
-16.9%
2 HP Inc.
55.3
18.9%
74.0
21.1%
-25.3%
3. Dell Technologies
49.8
17.0%
59.3
16.9%
-16.1%
4 Apple
28.6
9.8%
27.9
8.0%
2.5%
5.ASUS
20.6
7.0%
21.8
6.2%
-5.7%
Others
70.1
24.0%
85.2
24.3%
-17.8%
Total
292.3
100.0%
350.1
100.0%
-16.5%
Source: IDC, January 10, 2023
By the way, IDC predicted earlier that sales of both PCs and laptops would fall by 12.8% in 2022. As you can see, the fall is stronger – immediately -16.5%.
Why is everything so bad?
There are several factors here. The main one, as before, is the end of the pandemic. Somewhere there are separate foci, but small and not for long. Many employees who previously worked remotely have returned to offices that have all the necessary equipment for work. That is, you do not need to buy anything.
According to experts, as well as the media, including Chinese publications, the warehouses of Taiwanese vendors like Acer, Asus and MSI are now full. These companies sold products in bulk during the growth of the pandemic demand, so to speak, as well as during the period of shortage of electronics. But they did not immediately notice that demand was falling, perhaps even hoping that this was a temporary phenomenon. As a result, companies were unable to sell as many PCs, laptops, smartphones as they had previously planned, and ended up with warehouses full of their own products.
Naturally, the current geopolitical situation also affects. People are starting to save on electronics, preferring to cut costs or solve other problems. Many people prefer to buy used equipment, rather than new devices. Not so long ago, statistics about smartphones were published. Used devices are becoming very popular. On the one hand, this is good, because there is less electronic waste. On the other hand, suppliers of electronic devices suffer, if not losses, then a strong reduction in profits, which, of course, affects the overall development of the industry.
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Will it be better?
Despite the fact that IDC has been providing completely negative forecasts lately, the situation is somewhat different for 2023. Agency experts believe that the decline in the global PC market at the end of 2023 will be replaced by growth. It is not yet clear how quickly the changes will come, but the company has no doubt that they will.
The main increase, according to analysts, will be provided by corporate clients, not ordinary buyers. So, the term of support for Windows 10 is ending, which in Europe, the USA and a number of other regions can lead to an increase in purchases of new equipment.
It is difficult to judge how fair this forecast is, let’s see what 2023 will bring.
