Research “Technology Trends 2024”. Confrontation of Intelligences
Driving forces
The history of information technology is defined by breakthroughs in areas such as “interaction,” “information,” and “computation.” Together, they remain an inexhaustible source of innovation.
Interaction
The Digital and Physical World Without Borders: Spatial Computing and the Industrial Metaverse
Augmented and virtual reality technologies are gaining popularity among everyday users, but their biggest impact is on industry. In the industrial metaverse, factories and businesses are creating digital twins, spatial models, augmented reality work instructions, and digital spaces for productive and safe collaboration.
To work with immersive 3D models, workers, designers, and engineers are actively using familiar devices, such as tablets, as well as experimental technologies such as smart glasses. This approach is fundamentally different from what has been done before. Affordable, high-precision 3D technologies form the basis of a functional spatial network, in which a digital layer is superimposed on the physical one and accelerates work. Ultimately, the availability of autonomous machines, improved networking, and the creation of even simpler devices will allow spatial networks to be used in completely new ways, for example, to perform surgery remotely or to make it so that with a good connection one employee can manage the production shops of an entire enterprise.
Information
Let the Genie Out of the Bottle: Generative AI as a Growth Catalyst
While philosophers debate whether machines can think, generative AI challenges the very nature of that debate. In terms of how they function, its models are largely similar to earlier machine learning tools. But thanks to increased computing power and higher-quality code and training data, generative AI has learned to mimic human cognitive abilities in a variety of situations. Whether or not it is intelligent in the philosophical sense, in practice, AI is dramatically improving the productivity and efficiency of businesses. Now that machines can act, understand, and respond like humans, the question arises: what will this mean for business and the world at large?
Calculations
We must work not harder, but more efficiently: not with iron alone
The more technologically advanced companies are, the more complex their workloads become. Standard cloud services are still sufficient for most routine operations. But when it comes to high-tech use cases that create a competitive advantage, a new need for specialized equipment arises. Training AI models, complex modeling, and creating digital twins of physical environments require different types of computing power. Leading companies are looking for ways to improve the efficiency of their existing infrastructure and installing new equipment to speed up processes. Soon, some of them will go beyond standard binary calculations.
Restraining forces
What companies have already invested in and implemented must integrate well with innovative technologies so that business growth and expansion do not disrupt the smooth operation of the organization.
Technology at the core of business
From DevOps to DevEx: Don't Interfere with Engineers' Work
As new technologies create a competitive advantage and become a significant part of business, the demand for technical specialists is growing. However, their work is still not very efficient. In most companies, developers spend only 30-40% of their time directly writing code. However, for those who want to attract and retain the best talent, a new goal has emerged: DevEx, an approach that puts the work of software engineers at the forefront and does everything possible to ensure that nothing interferes with their immediate responsibilities. To improve the daily productivity and satisfaction of programmers, it is necessary to work out all their touchpoints with other departments within the organization. In the coming years, the DevEx concept may lead to the creation of integrated, intuitive tools that will allow non-technical employees to also develop and thereby bring value to the business.
Cyberspace protection and trusted environment
Defending Reality in the Age of Synthetic Media
The widespread use of AI tools has made it easier than ever for attackers to impersonate others and deceive their victims. Deepfake technologies are used to bypass facial and voice recognition systems and to conduct phishing attacks. With the advent of yet another content creation tool, security threats are multiplying exponentially. However, leading companies are implementing policies and technologies to identify malicious content and raise employee awareness of the risks.
Modernization of basic infrastructure
Stack Pumping: From “Technical Debt” to “Technical Health”
Having invested in once-cutting-edge technologies, especially if they have been doing so for many years, companies are left with a sprawling technology stack (including mainframes, networks, and data centers) that desperately needs to be modernized. Future market leaders should move away from piecemeal approaches to reducing technical debt and focus on a new, holistic paradigm for ensuring “technical health.” Proactively assessing business-critical systems can help determine what needs to be modernized now and what can be left alone for now. In the coming years, companies can create their own comprehensive “technical health” plans that cover the entire technology stack and invest in self-healing technologies to reduce the pool of tasks to be modernized in the future.
Confrontation of Intellects
Generative AI: A Springboard for Human Ambition
Last year, a team of futurists and researchers at Deloitte decided to use generative AI to design the cover and one of the chapters of the Tech Trends 2023 report. The result was truly impressive. But the company’s strict design standards still required significant human involvement. Following this successful experiment, the subsequent launch of ChatGPT, and the general craze for generative AI, the question arose: could AI-generated text be used to help write the introduction to the 2024 report. As with last year’s opus, significant human intervention was required. Thus, we have to admit that in the age of machines with artificial intelligence, human involvement is more important than ever.
Mike Bechtel, Deloitte’s chief futurist, has spent a quarter of a century studying emerging trends. This has allowed him to develop a distinctive, in some ways alternative, perspective on the current hype around generative AI and to place this revolutionary technology in a macro-technological context.
Evolution in technology, revolution in business
Despite the fact that generative AI is perceived as something unprecedented and revolutionary, the technology itself is the result of a surprisingly straightforward evolution of machine intelligence, whose annals Deloitte has been keeping track of since the creation of the first Tech Trends reports. Companies have been using mechanical muscles (industrial robotics) for almost 70 years, and mechanical minds (machine learning systems) for the last 25. The fact that our inorganic colleagues can now paint pictures, describe products, or program in Python is not an accident or a surprise – it is just another page in a book that scientists, if they study the history of computer science in the future, might call “Cognitive Automation: The Early Years.” How can we talk about an accident if advanced companies have been struggling with how to reduce the cost of decision-making for at least the last fifteen years (Fig. 1).
From a technological perspective, generative AI is just another chapter in the ongoing advancement of information science, but from a business perspective, the excitement is well-founded. There is no doubt that the ability to increase the productivity of human workers through silicon intelligence opens up entirely new opportunities for businesses. It is a complete paradigm shift that is set to radically transform the way businesses are organized and run.
There are no shortcuts on the road to success
Too many executives view generative AI as a simple “diet pill” – a quick way to bluntly cut costs through automation and, as a result, job cuts. Squeezing and starving a company’s existing cost centers may quickly please shareholders, taxpayers, and other key beneficiaries, but it will ultimately not bring success any closer. And business school textbooks are replete with cautionary tales of once-great organizations that, seduced by the allure of automation and outsourcing, cut costs, cut resources, and ultimately lost themselves, becoming easy prey for competitors and gobblers.
Instead, generative AI should be seen as a springboard for meeting increased ambition. Almost every executive Mike Bechtel meets has a vivid, engaging story about how their busy schedules prevent them from devoting as much attention to their ambitious plans as they would like. “Operations eats innovation for lunch,” said one CTO, paraphrasing Peter Drucker’s famous dictum, “Culture eats strategy for breakfast.” AI (both traditional and generative) can take over routine operations, freeing humans to finally focus on more important tasks that meet the needs of tomorrow. In other words, humans will have time to build and refine products and services, improve customer experiences, and open up new markets—the tried-and-true drivers of growth for any business.
Wanted: Generative Human
Many people worry that with the advent of generative AI, human creativity will be less in demand (or, more accurately, less valued) than it once was. As Mike Bechtel observes, it’s just the opposite: In the age of creative machines, human creativity is more important than ever.
For example, late last year, Mike Bechtel gathered a group of top managers in his office to show them a new generative AI tool that drew unique images based on text prompts. One of those present asked, “Draw me a sunset.” The picture was okay, but nothing special, so the person shrugged and said, “Yeah, a sunset is a sunset.” Unfazed, another participant asked, “Draw me a war between pretzels and cheese balls on Mars, where the pretzels are armed with nunchucks and the cheese balls are armed with water pistols.” The generator produced an image that was stunning in its absurdity, which completely delighted those present. Most (understandably) praised the “miraculous machine” that created the image. And yet, we must give credit to the person who, thanks to an amazing combination of an inquisitive mind and imagination, found the strength to ask for such a thing. Generative AI only recreates what humans have come up with, so the future belongs to those whose questions are better and whose ideas are brighter.
Generative machines continue to find applications in many areas of professional life, but it is up to humans to determine how original or mediocre their results will be. With careful and creative guidance, generative AI can open up a world of new business opportunities. It’s like real magic. Otherwise, humanity risks sliding into mediocrity or worse. As Deloitte CTO Bill Briggs likes to say: “Good doesn’t mean bad, but fast.”
We look at the sky, standing firmly on the ground
Finally, an important fact: none of this will work without a solid technological foundation. We IT enthusiasts (or, shall we say, “techies”) are all too familiar with the old adage “garbage in, garbage out.” And as early AI experiments show, the adage “garbage in, garbage squared out” will become more true over time. Small deviations in training data can lead to catastrophic distortions in AI output, so the first step is to get your corporate data in order.
And it's worth remembering: Information is just one of six macro-technological forces driving business (Figure 2).
Six Macro Forces of the IT Industry
Aging infrastructure in desperate need of modernization will not withstand the workloads that AI will create. A lack of differentiated computing will only make matters worse, and inefficient collaboration will result in lost customers, not to mention employees left behind or, worse, corporate cyberspace at risk. If you take away anything from the report, let it be this: No matter the hype around generative AI, don’t neglect the other five fundamental forces.
Yes, AI is king now, but that doesn't mean all your other efforts suddenly become unimportant.
To be continued…
