Real estate and its inflation “protection” in real figures

The article is dedicated to a small personal study on changes in the cost of a square meter in Warsaw, Minsk, Moscow and St. Petersburg. For simplicity and speed, I used chatgpt-4 everywhere with subsequent manual rechecking of all output values. There will be many unexpected results and interesting graphs, so let's get started!

Start

Here I will tell you in a little more detail about the stages that were subsequently completed for each city studied.

First of all, let's look at the change in the cost of a square meter in Warsaw over 15 years.

We write a simple query and look at the results:

Найди информацию по изменению цены квадратного метра в Варшаве за 10-15 лет и построй график

We get the following graph.

Everything would be fine, but it is still interesting to look at the price in relation to the dollar exchange rate. No problem, we send a request to chatgpt again and get the following graph:

We recheck the historical values ​​for adequacy and do the same for the other cities. As a result, we get the following graphs:

Minsk (here I immediately built a chart in dollars, professional deformation in Belarusian))

Moscow (there are some inaccuracies that I found and corrected later)

Peter (there are some inaccuracies that I found and corrected later)

First results

At this stage, the relationship between the growth of the cost of a square meter and the growth of the dollar exchange rate was already very interesting. So the next step was to bring all the graphs to a single form and recalculate all the values ​​in USD. I will spare the reader from long and tedious checks of information for adequacy and problems with calculations and will immediately show the final graphs of the change in the cost of a square meter in dollars.

And again Warsaw

Minsk

Moscow and St. Petersburg

Here I was again confused by the charts for Moscow and St. Petersburg and it was decided to delve into the real figures. As a result, all the information was taken from a large Russian real estate site (we will do without advertising).

As a result, after correcting all the data, we got a rather interesting graph.

Subtotal

Already at this stage it seems quite obvious that real estate is not such a protected asset and it is not so stable. Oh well, let's move on.

Inflation

The next step was to look at inflation for each country. ChatGPT gave the following information:

The year 2011 in Belarus was confusing, but judging by the information from Wikipedia, everything was like that:

In general, this could also be worked on, but since it was previously decided to look at everything in dollars, I decided to immediately turn to inflation in dollars over these years. Let's look at inflation in dollars:

Looks plausible. Let's get to the main point!

Climax

Finally, having all the data, we can take the values ​​of the cost per square meter for 2008 for each city and build a forecast of the cost per square meter, assuming that the cost of real estate (and therefore per square meter) covers inflation (= grows at the rate of inflation).

We ask ChatGPT to build such a graph for us and look at the results.

Well, for clarity, separately for each of the cities (for each point, information on local inflation in the country, usd inflation and the change in the price per square meter relative to the previous value has been added):

Moscow

Minsk

Warsaw

Peter

Conclusion

Well, since we conducted the research together with ChatGPT, then perhaps it would be better to find out the conclusion from him. We ask you to write a summary for the article, and we ourselves are off to wait for feedback from readers!)

Итог вашего исследования показывает, что недвижимость в Варшаве, Минске, Москве и Санкт-Петербурге за последние 15 лет развивалась по-разному, и корректировка цен с учетом инфляции в долларах США дает новый взгляд на реальную стоимость инвестиций в эти рынки. Выяснилось, что рост стоимости недвижимости не всегда сопоставим с уровнем инфляции, что ставит под вопрос устойчивость недвижимости как "защищенного" актива. Несмотря на общий рост номинальных цен, их реальная стоимость после учета инфляции не всегда представляет собой устойчивый прирост. Это подчеркивает важность учета макроэкономических факторов и валютных рисков при инвестировании в недвижимость на международных рынках.

I will be glad to receive any comments, additions, questions, conclusions and advice, I won’t say goodbye)