Qubits instead of bits: what future do quantum computers have for us?

One of the main scientific tasks of our time was the race to create the first useful quantum computer. Thousands of physicists and engineers participate in it. Their concepts are developed by IBM, Google, Alibaba, Microsoft and Intel. How does a powerful computing device change our world, and why is it so important?

Imagine for a moment: a full-fledged quantum computer is created. He became a familiar and natural element of our life. Classical computing is now spoken only at school, in history lessons. Somewhere deep in the cold basements, powerful machines operate with qubits to support the work of robots equipped with artificial intelligence. They perform all dangerous and simply monotonous things. Walking through the park, you look around and see all kinds of robots. Humanoid creatures walk dogs, sell ice cream, repair wiring, sweep the territory. Some models replace pets.

We got the opportunity to uncover all the secrets of the Universe and look inside ourselves. Medicine has reached a new level – innovative drugs are developed every week. We can predict and determine where scarce resources, such as gas and oil, are located. The problem of global warming has been resolved, energy conservation methods have been optimized, there are no more traffic jams in cities. A quantum computer not only controls all robotic machines, but also provides free movement: monitors the situation on the roads, corrects routes and intercepts control from drivers if necessary. That's what a quantum age might look like.

Quantum Gold Rush

The application prospects are staggering, so investment in quantum engineering is growing every year. The global market for quantum computing was valued at $ 81.6 million in 2018. Market.us experts suggest that by 2026 it will reach 381.6 million US dollars. That is, it will increase on average by 21.26% per year from 2019 to 2026.

This growth is fueled by the growing use of quantum cryptography in security applications and is driven by investments by interested parties in the quantum computing market. By the beginning of this year, according to an analysis by the scientific journal Nature, private investors have funded at least 52 quantum technology companies worldwide. Such large players as IBM, Google, Alibaba, Microsoft, Intel, D-Wave Systems are struggling to create a practically applicable quantum computer.

Yes, while the money flowing into this area annually represents a small cost (for comparison: in 2018, investments in AI amounted to 9.3 billion US dollars). But these numbers are significant for an immature industry that cannot yet boast of performance indicators.

Solving quantum problems

You need to understand that today the technology is still in its infancy. It was possible to create only prototypes of quantum machines, single experimental systems. They are able to execute fixed algorithms of small complexity. The first 2-qubit computer was created in 1998, and it took humanity 21 years to bring the devices to the proper level, the so-called “quantum superiority”. This term was coined by Professor of California Institute of Technology John Preskill. And it means the ability of quantum devices to solve problems faster than the most powerful classical computers.

A breakthrough in this area was made by California-based Google. In September 2019, the corporation announced that their 53-qubit Sycamore device in 200 seconds did the calculation, which would have taken 10,000 years for the most modern supercomputer. The statement caused a lot of controversy. IBM categorically disagreed with such calculations. The company wrote on its blog that their Summit supercomputer would cope with such a task in 2.5 days. And all that is needed is to increase the storage capacity of the disk. Although in reality the difference was not so colossal, Google was really the first to achieve "quantum superiority." And this is an important milestone in computer research. But no more than that. The Sycamore feat is for demonstration purposes only. It has no practical application and is useless for solving real problems.

The main problem is the hardware. If traditional computing bits have a value of 0 or 1, then in a strange quantum world, qubits can be in both states at the same time. This property is called superposition. The qubits are like spinning tops: they rotate simultaneously clockwise and counterclockwise, they move up and down. If you find this confusing, then you are in a great company. Richard Feynman once said: “If you think you understand quantum mechanics, then you don’t understand it.” Bold words from a man who received the Nobel Prize for … quantum mechanics.

So, qubits are extremely unstable and subject to external influences. A machine passing under the laboratory windows, internal noise of the cooling system, a passing cosmic particle – any random interference, any interaction violates their synchronism and they decohere. This is disastrous for computing.

The key question for the development of quantum computing is which hardware solution out of many investigated will ensure the stability of qubits. Anyone who solves the problem of coherence violation and makes quantum computers as widespread as GPUs will receive the Nobel Prize and become the richest person in the world.

The path to commercialization

In 2011, the Canadian company D-Wave Systems Inc. the first to sell quantum computers, although their usefulness is limited to certain mathematical problems. And in the coming months, millions of developers will be able to start using quantum processors through the cloud – IBM promises to provide access to its 53-qubit device. So far, under the program called Q Network, 20 companies have received such a privilege. Among them are Samsung Electronics, automakers Honda Motor and Daimler, chemical companies JSR and Nagase, banks JPMorgan Chase & Co. and barclays.

Most companies experimenting with quantum computing today see them as an integral part of the future. Now their main mission is to find out what works in quantum computing and what does not. And be the first to introduce technology to the business when it is ready.

Transport organizations. Volkswagen, together with D-Wave, is developing a quantum application – a traffic control system. The new program will enable public transport organizations and taxi companies in large cities to more efficiently use their fleet and minimize passenger waiting times.

The energy sector. ExxonMobil and IBM are pushing for quantum energy computing. They focus on developing a number of new energy technologies, improving energy efficiency and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The scope and complexity of the tasks that the energy sector faces are beyond the scope of modern traditional computers and are well suited for testing on quantum ones.

Pharmaceutical companies. Accenture Labs is partnering with 1QBit, a quantum software company. In just 2 months from research, they went on to test the concept – the application of modeling complex molecular interactions at atomic levels. Thanks to the power of quantum computing, it has become possible to analyze larger molecules. What will this give society? Innovative drugs with the least side effects.

Financial sector. Technologies based on the principles of quantum theory are increasingly attracting the interest of banks. They are interested in processing transactions, transactions and other types of data as quickly as possible. Barclays and JP Morgan Chase (with IBM), as well as NatWest (with Fujitsu) are already conducting their specialized software development experiments.

The adoption by such large corporations and the advent of enterprising quantum pioneers speak of the commercial viability of quantum. We already see how quantum computing is used for real-world tasks – from improving energy efficiency to optimizing vehicle routes. And importantly, the value of technology will grow as it develops.