Personnel shortage in IT is not what it seems
In 2024, the IT workforce shortage is considered a well-known fact. Experts estimate it at hundreds of thousands of people – from 500 thousand to a million. Everyone wants to go to study online courses that promise employment and big earnings. But in reality, the barrier to entry into IT remains high, and the path to the first offer is thorny.
Is there a personnel shortage in IT, where does it come from and what does it really mean? Participants will look into it with us. podcast “Suddenly there is something important” — Technical Director at KODE Nikolay NikolenkoVK NFT project manager Sergey Spirenkovauthor of the YouTube channel “Mobile Developer” Alexey Gladkovas well as Ph.D. and director of the FusionBrain laboratory at the AIRI Institute of Artificial Intelligence Andrey Kuznetsov.
This problem hurts in a different way
Once upon a time there were two friends, Petya and Misha. At the university, Petya studied to be an accountant, and Misha studied to be a programmer. They graduated from universities, graduated and got jobs in their specialty. We got so carried away that we saw each other for the first time three years after graduation. It was then that it turned out that in three years the salary of accountant Petya increased from 50 to 80 thousand rubles, and the salary of Java developer Misha grew from 50 to 200 thousand rubles.
Petya came home and said, “Alice, how to become a Java developer?” Alice answers him, “Here’s an online course for you, Petya, for a year, payable in installments; if you complete it, you’ll become a Java developer.” Petya moved his brains at night, listened to lectures, completed assignments. Whether it’s long or short, I finished the course a year later, wrote down what I learned on my resume, and started sending it to IT companies.
IT recruiters looked at Petino’s resume and responded with standard phrases on hh.ru. Petya edited it and added a cover letter, but nothing helped. He walked around the labor market for several months, and became desperate.
And at the same time as Petya, the team leader of Java developers at company N despaired. For the third month now, recruiters have been sending him candidates for the position of junior. Today he conducted another interview and was again forced to refuse due to a lack of practical experience, without which he could not possibly employ a junior on a project where labor was greatly needed.
— What kind of personnel shortage do they have in IT?! – Petya exclaimed annoyed.
“What a shortage of personnel we have in IT…” thought the Java team leader of company N, staring at the wall at the office coffee machine.
The fairy tale is a lie, but there is a hint in it: it is not so important when the personnel shortage in IT began – in 2020 or earlier. What's important is that it's actually a deficit. qualified frames.
Who is to blame and what to do
For the sake of constructiveness, let's start by answering the second question. The shortage of qualified personnel is a complex, complex problem, the solution of which involves the interests of two parties:
IT companies,
University graduates who have studied technical specialties and graduates of online courses.
Let's consider the corridor of opportunities for each side.
What should IT companies do?
IT companies need to create conditions so that seniors feel comfortable growing shifts without compromising their own careers and products. The transfer of competencies should not hinder the development of experienced specialists or run counter to their professional ambitions. An IT company that wants to retain accumulated knowledge and experience must create a favorable environment.
Alexey Gladkov:
— In my opinion, the statement “there are not enough programmers” is a myth, because an hour after the publication of an internship vacancy, the employer receives 10 thousand resumes. What is missing is the gentlemen who have left. It would seem that the middles should have grown up, but there is no one to raise them and there is no environment in which it would be beneficial to raise them. So I think companies need to create that environment. I know for sure that in some, experienced specialists are offered to train younger ones in exchange for… merch. The specialist is faced with a choice: develop features that will be included in the next performance review grade, or get a sweatshirt and T-shirt. I think the choice is obvious. Today, seniors should only deal with the organization of labor and the transfer of knowledge, because there are very few of them. They will be able to return to their normal tasks when they find themselves in at least a small surplus.
Sergey Spirenkov:
— Yes, we have lost the center of competence. Even large market players like VKontakte, Sber and Yandex lost people who created the knowledge bank within the company and were its guardians. They gradually leave or quit due to dissatisfaction with internal conditions. The center of competence is being eroded, and it is being replaced only by people from online courses who still have time to grow.
Nikolay Nikolenko:
“It seems to me that companies have not yet reflected on what happened, have not had time to adapt to the new reality and are trying to solve a new problem using old methods. Therefore, you need to periodically review your processes and check whether your actions are helping you achieve your goal.
What should those who want to enter IT do?
According to hh.ru, From 2021 to 2023, on average, competition for IT jobs has doubled. In June 2021, there were three resumes per vacancy, and in the summer of 2023 there were more than six.
At the same time, the activity of employers is decreasing, and the activity of job seekers is increasing. In the first half of 2023, companies posted 71 thousand vacancies in the IT field – 9% less than in the first half of 2022. And applicants posted 480 thousand resumes—11% more. At the same time, the unemployment rate is a record low – 3.6% in 2023, that is, there are almost no specialists who are unemployed.
Everyone who wants to get a job in IT can be globally divided into two categories:
University graduates who have received a diploma in an IT specialty.
Online course graduates.
What is the problem with university graduates?
Having completed training in an IT-related specialty, a university graduate may discover that he has not received the right set of skills needed to work in an IT company.
Sergey Spirenkov:
— I often see graduates who do not have applied fundamental knowledge. I studied computer science and computer science and was taught to program in assembly language. Now a person may not see the essence of solving the problem, but this is the basis for any specialist. And this is not only a problem for graduates. For example, a friend of mine, a good PHP developer, tried to join VKontakte. He said that he was asked to write a bubble sort algorithm, but he thought it was unnecessary. But it seems to me that if we are talking about highly loaded systems, the developer must understand how everything works and be able to optimize the algorithm. And it is logical that the employer asks him about this in order to understand how his mind works. It also seems to me that knowledge of mathematics is of great importance for a good developer. From management, task assessment to team management – everything is tied to numbers, you can’t argue against them.
Alexey Gladkov:
— Yes, sometimes I come across a similar point of view. For example, that a higher education is not necessary, but then, in the course of work, it turns out that this is not so. Some people think that seniors need old core knowledge, and real fashionable dudes code with Chat GPT or Copilot.
Andrey Kuznetsov:
— I think it’s better to treat such tools as assistants and not place too much hope on them. Otherwise, we will get a lot of low-quality code everywhere: in IT, in mobile, and in the backend.
Nikolay Nikolenko:
“I have a positive example of a person who, as it seems to me, followed the right path. A young student applied for a developer vacancy and overall the interview went much better than with people with commercial experience. It turned out that while studying at the university, he saw that we had opened a vacancy for an Android developer, which had 10 specific positions. He read about each technology and immediately put it into practice. As a result, his knowledge at the start was deeper than that of most people who simply worked with these technologies in the project, he understood why and why this was the case. With this approach, within a year he grew to become a Middle+ specialist.
However, no matter how many complaints IT companies have about educational programs, it is easier for university graduates to find their first job compared to graduates of online courses. Most often, they already have fundamental knowledge, to which they need to add knowledge about more modern and popular tools, as well as gain practical experience, for example:
make a pet project,
complete an order for a freelance exchange,
try to implement some kind of IT solution for friends.
A small but strong baggage of your own attempts, combined with a confident orientation in theory, will allow you to either quickly get an internship or find a job within a few months.
What is the problem with online course graduates?
Here we come to the answer to the question “Who is to blame?” The IT industry has partly wrapped itself in a reputation that it is easy to work here and pays a lot. Marketing of online courses picked up these stereotypes and, in pursuit of sales, began to form incorrect expectations among the audience – for example, a high salary at the start or guaranteed employment. As a result, people began to perceive online courses as a direct ticket to IT, and the industry received a labor market with a large number of low-skilled specialists who turned out to be of no use to anyone.
To an inexperienced online course student, it may seem like you just need to diligently complete the assignments and get an A, and at the end, write about it on your resume and find a job. In fact, it will hardly be of interest to HR people who are looking at dozens of similar resumes.
Online courses have an undeniable advantage: they have made IT education at the simplest level accessible. 10-15 years ago, a forty-year-old accountant from the region had almost no chance of gaining basic theoretical knowledge as a developer, but today there is. The downside is that it is almost impossible to overcome the competition for an internship – and, moreover, to find a job with knowledge of this level.
Nikolay Nikolenko:
— It seems that in recent years the barrier to entry into IT has increased. In the spring, we at KODE had internships for iOS and Android developers, as well as for testers. The ratio is as follows: on iOS – 168 responses and two offers, on Android – 113 responses and three offers, for testing – 1172 responses and six offers.
Sergey Spirenkov:
“There is a feeling that in some areas it has become insurmountable. For example, 1,172 novice testers applied for an internship with you, you accepted 10 for training, which means 1,162 people were left behind.
Alexey Gladkov:
— When I assess the level of difficulty for entering IT, I take into account the period from the moment a person decided to buy a course and become a developer until the moment he found his first job. Recently it was one year, then two, now about three years. And the time increased not due to training, but due to the period from the first interview to the first offer.
Sergey Spirenkov:
— And all because going to look for a job after an online course is like taking a sapper’s shovel and going to storm a fortress. Simply because during training they may be given an inappropriate basis. As a result, a distortion is created in the market: there are many graduates with irrelevant knowledge who are trying to find their first job, and there are companies that do not have enough personnel, but they often do not highlight their stack. And so we get a situation where a deaf person tells a blind person about colors.
As a result, IT companies take the simplest route and increase the requirements for Hard Skills in order to weed out unsuitable applicants. Let's imagine an abstract recruiter in an IT company who needs a June tester. Six years ago, he collected 100 potential candidates, quickly contacted them, distributed test tasks and then brought two or three people to interviews. Now there may be 1000 people or more in his primary pool. To “squeeze out” the excess, you need to raise the bar of requirements.
Alexey Gladkov:
— I remembered someone’s story: “I bought an expensive Android developer course. After the course I realized that they weren’t taking me anywhere. I found a mentor, paid him the same amount as the course cost, and only after studying with him did I find an internship. The only thing I got from the course was crazy motivation to get an internship to compensate for some of the money I spent.”
Let’s summarize the results of this section: the barrier to entry into IT has really increased, and in areas where it is easier to study, it has completely skyrocketed. Theoretical knowledge from online courses is not enough to get an internship or get a job. You need to independently study the tools that IT specialists use in companies, you need to look for internships and gain experience so that you have something to discuss at an interview.
The path of a person who has studied a technical specialty at a university and gained fundamental knowledge is a little simpler and shorter. It is more difficult for a student in an online course because he starts towards the goal from the farthest position. But that doesn't mean he can't get to her.
What will happen next to the IT labor market?
Nikolay Nikolenko:
— What prospects do you see for the development of the labor market and IT education?
Andrey Kuznetsov:
— I think that collaborations between corporations, IT companies, scientific institutes and universities will help in solving the problem of growing seniors. To set up the chain of human development from student to ready-made specialist, a systematic approach is needed. If a high-quality “conveyor” appears, pseudo-education will have no chance.
Alexey Gladkov:
— Humanity often chooses the worst possible development option, so I foresee it. I think every major corporation will have its own education company. It will specifically train personnel for the needs of this corporation, and for everyone else the entrance to IT will be closed. Gradually, corporate educational companies will come to universities, and then to schools, and children will know from childhood that they will work for their brand. Corporations will gobble up small IT companies, and those that survive will borrow educational standards from corporations and adapt them to suit themselves.
Sergey Spirenkov:
“And I’m more optimistic.” I did an industrial master's and it was a cool experience that influenced me a lot. Firstly, it seems to me that we need to move away from centralization and for everything to be gradually distributed from Moscow to the periphery, otherwise we will all play by the rules of the big players. Secondly, I think positive changes will begin when more and more IT companies will be able not only to pull specialists out of the market, but also to grow them on their own. Thirdly, it is necessary to adjust fundamental education and introduce into it the knowledge and skills that are needed in the labor market today.
* * *
It seems to us that the truth is somewhere in the middle. No matter how much the IT sector attracts with high earnings, absolutely everyone will not work in it, so there will always be dropouts. Despite this, today the IT profession is a functioning social elevator. Therefore, we root for everyone who tries and puts in the effort, and wish them patience to reach their goal.
We recorded this conversation on May 9, and a month later, on June 8, the head of the Ministry of Digital Development, Maksut Shadayev, announced that he plans to introduce requirements for the participation of IT companies in the training of students of specialized specialties at universities. It turns out that the request for training by IT companies and their support for institutions is formed by the labor market, business and the state.
According to the Ministry of Digital Development, such an obligation should improve the quality of training and ensure “personnel sovereignty”, and therefore reduce the shortage of personnel in the market of IT specialists.
What do you think?
