Passion-Driven Decision Making for the Poor – An Endless Game of Survival

Hello! I am David Asatryan, the creator of the Creative Hub [Alcor] and Head of Product Launch and Change Management.

IN previous article I talked about how to manage projects where the main source of decision-making is intuition. In the previous material, the main focus was on investors. In such projects, the risk of being left hungry on the street tends to zero. But what if you are a mere mortal without capital for several generations ahead, but confident in your “gut feeling”?

In this article I talk about an approach for startups and those developing in the creative industry.

Disclaimer #1 about the concept

I won't give you any clear tools, as the topic is quite “soft”. Therefore, as in the Agile Manifesto, don't expect specifics: this article is not about how to open a successful startup without money in 10 steps. It is about the concept of Passion-Driven Decision Making.

Disclaimer #2 about books and this article

What books tell is usually written for corporations, where there is already an impressive knowledge base and a good flow of data. In the words of Peter Thiel, the founder of the PayPal payment system: “Books are great for moving from one to infinity, but they work poorly for those moving from zero to one.” This is material for those who are still running to their one.

It is worth remembering that a startup is an enterprise whose only goal is to find a scalable product and recoup its costs as quickly as possible. At the same time, there is an extremely high uncertainty, no system and no scalability.

Briefly about Passion-Driven Decision Making

For those who don’t like “long letters”, I have collected the whole essence of the approach in two sentences and one picture.

Classical approach to development products requires you to first conduct research and then create the product. In Passion-Driven Decision Making, you first create the product and then select the tools to promote and develop it.

Important: often this approach works in conjunction with Purpose-Driven approach, which is more well-known than Passion-Driven. But the first concept is about the company as a whole, and the second is about a personal strategy that is suitable for small startups.

As you can see, Passion-Driven Decision Making is a very risky approach. To avoid going crazy, you need to implement the strategy of the “Infinite Game” (more details in the really useful book by James Carse “Finite and Infinite Games”), where your task is to stay in the game as long as possible.

Endless Game Strategy

If you are too lazy to read James's book (“many letters”), here is its essence: you need to build your life and behavior in such a way that you can stay in the game indefinitely, regardless of what is happening in the world and in life.

To do this, it is important to take into account the rules of such an endless game:

1. The goal is to stay in the game, not to win.

2. The results of actions provide information: try to gain as quickly as possible errors. Yes, instead of trying to prove to yourself that you are right, try to structure your work in such a way as to prove as quickly as possible by action that you are wrong.

3. Failure is an expectation, success is an error. Therefore, all actions and decisions should be made from the position of “5% probability of success”. Accordingly, it is necessary to create a system in which you can conduct experiments every day and not get exhausted in a year.

4. You can only use what you already have. If the idea requires “finding a million dollars” or “a team of technical specialists” to implement, then it is better to abandon this idea.

A dry example of the application of the “Infinite Game” strategy: imagine that you are playing in a casino, your budget is $ 1000 and the goal is to survive until the morning. What will be the strategy?

In this case, we should simply calculate the number of iterations of the game that is planned and divide our budget by this number. For example, if we know that we will have 100 bets, then the budget for each of them is $ 10. We do not bet higher than this amount. The same is true for the project.

How much resources are we willing to lose each month that will not reduce the quality of life or create a catastrophe? Everyone will have their own answer to this question.

The infinite game approach, described by James Carse, distinguishes between finite and infinite games. Finite games, such as sports or business competitions, have fixed rules, known players, and a clear end point where someone wins or loses. In contrast, infinite games—“life,” “personal growth,” or “the evolution of society”—have no fixed rules, no defined end, and their primary purpose is to perpetuate the game itself. The focus is on adaptability, continuous improvement, and playing for a long-term goal rather than short-term success.

Keys to Strategy Implementation

1. Change your mindset and give up short-term victories. Focus on the long term, focus on adaptability and resilience rather than short term gains.

2. A targeted approach. Define a clear purpose that goes beyond immediate tasks – the mission should guide actions.

3. Flexibility. Be prepared to change strategies and rules as circumstances change, avoid rigid structures.

4. Cooperation instead of competition. Interact with other startups in a way that allows for mutual development, not competition. Otherwise, all players will end up with zero sum.

5. SustainabilityDevelop the ability to tolerate failure and view it as an opportunity to grow and learn.

6. Continuous improvement. Prioritize learning and development over achieving fixed results; there is no finish line.

7. Unlimited targetsSet strategic, endless goals; aim to continue the game rather than reach the end point.

Limitations: Who this approach definitely won't suit

First, Passion-Driven is not suitable for industries where there is no room for error, such as the energy industry or the development of surgical equipment.

You should also exclude this approach if you pawned your grandmother's last gold, your refrigerator is empty, and your account is already down a million dollars.

Secondly, this approach has a number of shortcomings, some of which are described in the study. “A Potential Pitfall of Passion: Passion Is Associated with Performance Overconfidence” by Erica R. Bailey, Kai Krautter, Wen Wu, Adam D. Galinsky, Jon M. Jachimowicz.

Here are his main findings:

1. There is a connection between passion [Passion] and self-confidence in work. Passionate people often overpriced ideas about yourself, your work and the results of your work.

2. A leader with sparkling eyes increases employee engagement, motivates people to work harder and take on more tasks.

3. While passion can improve performance, it also increases the risk of overconfidence, which can negatively impact results. Especially in areas that require precision and critical judgment.

4. Passion is useful in entrepreneurial or creative environments where overcoming failure and bold decision-making are valued, but less so in areas where there is no room for mistakes.

Who would benefit from this approach?

Passion-Driven takes root in creative projects, where there is a large field for experiments and mistakes. In the IT sector, it is better to use a similar approach if you are creating an MLP instead of an MVP (i.e. a model of a minimum attractive product, not a minimum viable one) and you need to convey as many values ​​​​as possible to the user – to win his heart 200%.

Passion-Driven Markets — niches where the method has taken root

We are talking about industries where the end consumer will buy your product or service from a position of hedonism, not from basic needs. This could be contemporary art, collectible wines, luxury brands and other similar areas. Dry data in them may tell you one thing, but the heart of the buyer tells you another.

Examples of companies that use this approach in some form or another in combination with Purpose-Driven include: Birkin, Louis Vuitton, Yeezy, Patagonia, Def Jam Recordings, Myria, etc.

And we can include in this sphere players of the same market: artists, fashion designers, composers, producers, actors, etc.

Young & Hungry, or Pet-Project For Fun

These are aspiring startuppers who launch their own pet projects with the goal of having fun and gaining experience/knowledge along the way. And if a person is patient enough, then to be filled with this world, go to the river and raise a round of investment.

From the name it is clear that:

• a good artist is a hungry artist;

• You should treat the project like a Tamagotchi game, not a real dog.

Remember, when you're just starting out, you have nothing. Instead of looking for “trends” that you want to adapt to, you need to take what you can implement right now with your current resources. When you're big, smart, and rich, then look for trends. Right now, your goal is to earn your first capital for shawarma and instant noodles.

However, reality is inexorable. In my experience, out of 16 innovative hypotheses, only 5-6% work. We are talking specifically about new products and markets. If you work within an already popular product, then the chances of success in choosing hypotheses in the role of Product Owner will increase to 30%.

For example, if a copywriter from an ALREADY operating business writes 25 texts for advertising creatives in targeting, then only 8 of them will bring target conversions. In situations where a startup starts from scratch, everything is sadder. There, only 2-3 creatives can work, and this is not accurate.

The beauty of my experience is that in the vast majority of cases I worked with projects where it was necessary to launch new startups in a conveyor mode. And, in addition to statistics on the survival of products after launch, I saw countless projects that died in the bud, before they even reached the market. Most often, this happened for two reasons: the enthusiasm ran out, or the money ran out.

That's why statistics on startup survival say that only 10% of them will survive the first year. But the reality is harsh. Usually, it includes only those products that have entered the market, and does not take into account those that died in absentia.

Very often, pet projects start not with the desire to make money, but with the desire to “get going” and collect new cases. Therefore, if you have a startup without a penny, it is better to use Passion-Driven with elements of an endless game. This will allow you to conduct a large number of experiments and not burn out prematurely.

The Essence of Passion-Driven

The point of this approach is not to ignore data entirely, but to prioritize intuition and creativity. Often, the best decisions contradict traditional analytics or are not supported by statistically significant data at all.

Especially when you go from zero to one.

The main principles of Passion-Driven:

1. Start and make decisions quickly, but give yourself the right to finish “someday”. There is no goal to win here and now. The main thing is to maximize the concentration of actions per square centimeter. You can find the right course later, the main thing now is to go.

2. Of two evils, choose the one you haven't tried yet. If you have N hypotheses but don't know what to do, choose the one you haven't tested yet. This way you'll gain more knowledge, information, and experience. Plus, cool ideas are often outside our area of ​​knowledge and expertise.

3. Don't rely on outside opinions – you can collaborate with other business leaders or team members to find possible alternatives and additional points of view, but ultimately the decision is yours. Don't try to make the “right decisions.”

4. Action over thought: Pick one thing that will give you momentum and encourage you to move forward and act with inspiration.

5. Big goals and a short horizon are the enemies of experience and necessary mistakes. In this approach, taking ambitious tasks is contraindicated. There is no need to set yourself a month-long deadline for the “success of the enterprise”. Forget about deadlines – just move.

6. At first we do it very badly – we work “layer by layer”. The first version of the product may be crooked and slanted. Moreover, the first version of the product may not perform its function at all. How much? About this much:

Why Passion-Driven is suitable for startups

Eight reasons why the Passion-Driven approach fits perfectly into pet projects and Young&Hungry:

1. You don't need a lot of research. For a startup, it's enough to just get moving and then “feel out” your audience and offers.

2. You may feel less responsibility. Just start without high expectations. The goal at the beginning is to create a project that will cover your basic needs and light you up. In other words, the goal is “Start earning enough to continue doing this.”

3. There's a good chance you'll end up doing something you enjoy, even if it doesn't sound as sexy as “AI Data Engineering.”

4. You will always have to learn and develop. When a person is passionate about something, they are more likely to put in extra effort and do everything possible to achieve their goals.

5. Making decisions based on “passion” can increase creativity and innovation. Passionate people tend to approach problems from new perspectives and think outside traditional norms.

6. You're less likely to give up if you do it for the thrill of it, rather than for the numbers on your account or dashboard.

7. You will be less tired than in a regular job. Passion-Driven helps you avoid fatigue from responsibility or feeling dissatisfied with a choice that does not correspond to your personal beliefs.

8. You will feel 100% self-actualized. Intuitive decisions lead to life becoming purposeful and meaningful, which is necessary for happiness and well-being.

Instead of conclusions

Passion/intuition-driven decision making is not about blindly following a wish list, but about being creative and resilient in the face of uncertainty. While it can be risky, it is ideal for those who value personal growth, innovation, and learning over immediate success. The key is to find a balance between passion and a game-playing mindset, and to keep going no matter what.

If you are developing a nuclear reactor, this approach will bring disaster, not possible “goodies”. But if your project is a source of inspiration that you can support yourself and still enjoy, then Passion-Driven is what you need.