Migration of IT specialists in 2022-2023
Be careful, longread!
If you don't want to read for long, the main conclusions are described at the end of the article.
Hello everyone. My name is Alena, I am a graduate of the Master's program “Sociology of the Public Sphere and Digital Analytics” at the National Research University Higher School of Economics. In April 2024, as part of my thesis, I conducted a quantitative study on migration in the IT sector – who moved where over the past two years, why, and so on. Here I would like to share the results. I hope it will be interesting!
If you have something to say about what you've read, leave comments. I'll be very happy to discuss, answer questions or get feedback 🙂
The study was conducted on the SurveyStudio online platform. Participants were recruited using the snowball method (distributing a link to the questionnaire among “friends”, from hand to hand) and through several Telegram channels that were not indifferent and agreed to support the novice researcher free of charge – IT Today, RelocationDEV by GeeckoMove, IT Relocation (Inflow). I express public gratitude and leave clickable links ❤️
It was possible to collect 321 questionnaires. The relationship between the statuses of the study participants – “left”, “stayed” or “returned” – looks like this:
It is important to note that the sample unrepresentative. It does not reflect the actual ratio between workers who left and those who stayed. The study was primarily aimed at identifying the factors motivating people to stay in Russia, move, or return to their homeland.
Two thirds (66.1% of respondents) are developers or programmers; 10.8% are involved in data analytics, 4.4% – in systems analytics; 6.6% are testers; 6% are system administrators or information security specialists; 3.2% are involved in product or project management. 2.9% of respondents identified themselves as representatives of other IT specialties.
The majority of IT specialists who took part in the study were men (85.1%). The age of respondents ranged from 18 to 51 years. The average and median age was 30 years. Almost half of them, 48.1%, were officially married, another 14.9% lived with their chosen one, but were not married. 34.8% of respondents had never been married, 2.1% were divorced or widowed.
Most IT workers who took part in the survey do not have children (78.8%). 14.2% have one child, 5.7% have two children, 1.3% have three.
The vast majority of information technology specialists who completed the questionnaire have higher education – 82.3%. Of these, 8.9% (in absolute values – 7.3%) have a second higher education, MBA, candidate’s or doctoral degree. At the time of the survey, 8.2% of IT specialists were students.
80% of respondents assessed their financial situation as average (35%) or above average (45%). Another 16% of IT specialists who took part in the study stated that they have a level of income that allows them to have everything they need.
Thus, characterizing the portrait of the research participant, we can say that he is a married man of 30 years old, a developer or programmer with an above-average income level, with a higher education and no children.
Among the migrants who took part in the study (both returnees and non-returnees), the largest number of people moved from Russia in September 2022. During this period, 27% of the total number of migrants surveyed left the country. Another jump occurred earlier, in March 2022. Then, 15.8% of the IT specialists who migrated and took part in the study left Russia.
Only 9.7% of study participants moved before 2022 or after 2023. The distribution of the remaining 90.3% of participants by year and month of move can be seen in the interactive graph below:
Of the IT specialists who moved abroad from Russia in 2022-2023, just over half moved directly to the host country and stayed there (50.8%). Another 31.6% of them managed to live in two countries. 11.9% of respondents changed three host countries during their absence from Russia, 5.7% – four or more countries.
6.2% of them studied abroad before February 2022, and 19.8% had work experience abroad. This experience could probably be an additional incentive to move to another country.
An interesting trend, important for our study, can be noted in the issue of choosing countries for relocation. A significant part of respondents, confirming the trends of previous years described in scientific studies, choose technologically advanced locations for relocation, where professional and career growth is possible – European countries (both within and outside the European Union), North American countries or, for example, Israel and the UAE. But also Locations that were previously unclaimed are becoming popular – these are the CIS countries, Georgia, South Asian countries (Sri Lanka, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, South Korea, Thailand), Turkey.
It was assumed that more highly qualified specialists would choose countries with developed IT clusters for relocation – for example, the USA, European countries. However, no significant connection was found between the choice of a particular location for relocation and work experience according to the results of the study for the period under study.
However, a significant link was found across the entire sample between the presence of experience of migrating abroad and length of service: IT workers with little experience are less likely to make a decision to move, while employees with very high seniority (this group included the values of the upper quartile among all observations, with experience of more than 11 years) tend to leave Russia soonerThis trend highlights and intensifies the already “painful” problem of “brain drain” in the IT sector.
The status of personal relationships (marriage or cohabitation) showed a significant connection with moving abroad. IT specialists who do not have a partner are more likely NOT to leave Russia for another countryAt the same time, the presence of a connection between age and the departure/non-departure of IT specialists is not statistically confirmed.
IT specialists abroad: pull/push factors and prospects for returning to Russia
The most common reasons for IT specialists to move are personal security motive and political motives. Also, about half of the study participants who moved to live in another country noted that a significant reason for them to move was the deterioration of working conditions in the Russian Federation after February 2022 (blocking of websites, software, bank cards, severing ties with foreign partners, etc.)
Slightly less popular were such motives for moving as the desire to see the world, to travel, relocation (moving with the employer), the departure of colleagues from the IT industry, receiving a lucrative job offer in another country, and a family decision. Other motives individually turned out to be important for less than 5% of those who answered the question about significant reasons for moving (for more details, see the graph below).
As for the reasons for choosing a particular country, the most popular of them was the opportunity to move without obtaining a visa. It was chosen by almost half of the IT migrants surveyed (49%). It turned out to be especially important for specialists living in Georgia or in European countries with visa-free entry (Montenegro, Serbia, Yugoslavia) (if a survey participant lives in one of these countries, then the possibility of visa-free entry most likely became one of the most significant factors in their choice). However, the connection between this factor and the location of residence turned out to be insignificant for those who choose one of the CIS countries to move to, although Russians are also allowed to stay there without a visa.
We also measured the deterrents that respondents perceived as obstacles to moving abroad, but were less significant for them compared to the push and/or pull factors. Most often, IT specialists’ concerns were related to the fact that you will have to leave your relatives or friends in RussiaIt is important to note that more than a quarter of respondents did not find any restraining factors for themselves when planning to move abroad (see graph below).
Before moving, the vast majority (65.8%) of IT specialists from Russia were employees of Russian companies, 26.5% – foreign. After moving, the ratio became the opposite: if at the time of the study, 64.3% of respondents were employees of foreign companies, then only 29.6% were employees of Russian companies. At the same time, the statistical Chi-Square method was able to determine that IT specialists who worked in Russian companies before their departure are more likely to keep their previous job, changing only their place of residence. But those employees who decided to get a new job are unlikely to choose a Russian company for their employment in the future.
Working abroad certainly has its advantages. Workers who have moved and are employed by foreign companies usually rarely experience difficulties with money transactions (transferring and cashing money, making payments, etc.) and often talk about the convenience of staying in the country, documentary, legal registration (visa or residence permit and other documents).
The experience of moving is also associated with some deterioration in certain areas of life (see the table below for more details). There are significant fears, anxieties and concerns for IT specialists. For example, more than half of IT specialists who left Russia note that the number of relatives or friends they communicate with has decreased. Of the workers remaining in the country, this was stated by a significantly smaller proportion of respondents – slightly more than a quarter. Similar changes are noted in the amount of live communication: those surveyed remaining in Russia significantly less frequently reported a decrease in the amount of informal offline interactions with people over the past 2 yearsthan specialists who have gone abroad.
Significantly more often than the group of IT specialists who remained in Russia, migrants speak about a decline in their standard of living in general.
Finally, workers who have gone abroad rate their confidence in finding a job with a satisfactory salary level significantly lower than those who remained to live in Russia.
Given the significant reduction in the complexity of the work performed, as assessed by IT specialists who left compared to those who stayed, it can be assumed that migrants are faced with the threat of deskilling abroadThe literature quite often discusses the problem of the discrepancy between work experience in Russia and what a migrant encounters in the country of relocation, as a result of which he has to undergo retraining and start from the “basics”.
Thus, working abroad, IT specialists receive more comfortable working conditions (reduced stress, volume of work), but at the same time face a decrease in the complexity of work and the general standard of living. And, on the contrary, those who stayed in Russia receive more career opportunities, complex, ambitious tasks and do not deviate from the trajectory of their professional development, and are also more confident that, if necessary, they will be able to find a suitable job for themselves.
Over time, the number of IT migrants wishing to return to Russia is decreasing. This is due to the general decrease in emotional “degree”: the average anxiety level of IT specialists, according to our research, decreased from 4.2 points in February-September 2022 to 2.7 points at the time of the survey (Anxiety was assessed on a Likert scale from 1 to 5). Those who left emotionally, not very thoughtfully or temporarily, have probably already returned; those who have managed to settle into their new place, who have carefully planned their move or found a job in their place of residence, have stayed abroad.
The most popular factors that could influence the return of Russian IT specialists from abroad to their homeland are: change in the political situation in Russia (69.8%) and end of the Special Military Operation (48.5%). Another important factor that could potentially become a motive for the return of more than a third of migrants is the need to take care of relatives or loved ones in RussiaFor 18.3% of IT specialists who have moved abroad, the decision to move is final and irrevocable: there is not a single factor that could make them return back.
Finally, based on the answers of a small number of respondents who returned regarding the reasons for their return, in the current circumstances, a trend towards return migration can be noted under the influence of the motive of longing for home, for loved ones and relatives. This was noted by 15 of the 27 respondents. Based on the available data, it can be assumed that, given the unchanged socio-political situation, the prospects of returning to the Motherland in the near future may be for those respondents who are homesick or would like to take care of their family if desired or necessary (45%). They are more likely to positively assess their return to Russia. This conclusion was statistically confirmed by the Chi-Square criterion.
IT specialists in Russia: lack of motives and factors that deter relocation
After the start of the Special Military Operation and after the start of partial mobilization, the desire of IT specialists living in Russia to leave the country increased significantly compared to the period before February 2022 (from 41.7% to 55.8%, respectively), and then decreased to the previous level (38.3%). Nevertheless, workers, despite their doubts, remained in the country for one reason or another, under the influence of one factor or another.
The overwhelming majority of IT workers who have not left Russia say that the deterrent for them is residence in the country of family members (71.7%). More than half of the respondents don't want to leave their friends (54.2%).
To assess the impact of these and other factors of IT specialists' relocation, a factor analysis was conducted. Based on its results, it can be said that all the factors identified in the study, taking into account the specificity of the responses of this group of respondents, can be divided into two blocks. The first block is, in fact, lack of motives for moving, or “positive” factors that attract to the current place of residence. It includes the comfort of living in the country, patriotic sentiments and a sense of responsibility for loved ones (“I am satisfied with my job in Russia”, “I believe that Russia has the best conditions for my life”, “I consider myself a patriot of my country”, “I have no desire, I see no reason to move” and the factors already mentioned above “The whole family/part of the family lives in Russia”, “Friends live in Russia”). The second block includes a group “negative” (restraining) factors, personal restrictions that are barriers to a person's desire to move (“Presence of property obligations (loans, mortgages)”, “Difficulties in obtaining documents (residence permits, visas, passports, etc.)”, “Presence of real estate (apartment, summer house), car”, “Lack of financial resources, savings” and others).
It is important to emphasize that the availability of a mobilization exemption is provided by both the employer and the higher education institution where the specialist may study. Therefore, students are less likely to leave their country. According to the results of checking the presence of a relationship between the variables of departure and studying at the university using the Chi-Square criterion, an IT specialist who is also a student is more likely to live in Russia and most likely will not belong to the group of IT migrants. This result is statistically significant at the 95% confidence level.
In total, 8.2% of the participants were students at the time of the study. At the same time, among those who did not go abroad, the share of students in higher education institutions is 17%, and among those who went abroad, the share of current students is only 2%. The factor of studying at a university can thus be considered a deterrent to external migration from Russia in 2022-2023.
Positive factors play a major role in the emergence of the desire to migrate. For example, it was possible to statistically confirm that IT specialists who do NOT consider positive factors important for themselves are more likely to think about a possible departure from Russia, and not only during periods of making significant political decisions in the country, but also before and after them.
The study participants also estimated the percentage of their professional environment that had moved abroad. Those who remained in Russia estimated the number of migrant colleagues in their environment significantly lower. Thus, if the average share of migrants in the IT community according to subjective estimates for the entire sample was 37.6%, then for IT specialists who remained in Russia it was exactly a quarter (25%).
IT specialists' satisfaction with external circumstances is strongly related to the factors described above. For example, significantly more specialists living in Russia (84.2%) than the sample average (60.8%) highly rate their satisfaction with the opportunity to communicate with relatives and friends. At the same time, IT specialists living in Russia are 18.2% less likely than the sample average to positively rate the level of personal safety and security.
Among the negative trends in the subjective feeling of life and work in Russia, one can note increasing labor intensity. Those IT specialists who remained in Russia, in contrast to their colleagues who left, significantly more often note that over the past 2 years the volume of their work has increased (44.2% versus 20.1%), as well as its complexity (57.5% versus 31.4%). In addition, IT workers who left more often than their colleagues in Russia report a decrease in stress at work (29% versus 13.3%).
Finally, a very important and interesting finding is the fact that IT specialists living in Russia are significantly more likely to be fluent in a foreign language (27.5%) than those workers who moved to live in another country (17.2%). It can be assumed that this is due either to the choice of locations for relocation that do not require knowledge of any language other than Russian, or to the fact that when in contact with native speakers, self-assessment of the level of language proficiency decreases.
General conclusions
In one way or another, the general trends of relocation in the IT sphere, described in the scientific literature of previous years, persist – relocation for stronger colleagues (maintaining ties with the professional community), the desire to relocate by diasporas, the priority choice of countries with more opportunities for development. However, in the changing living conditions in 2022-2023, we managed to record new trends. First of all, this is the strengthening of the role of countries that began to be chosen for relocation, in addition to the countries of Europe and America – CIS countries, Georgia, Türkiye and South Asian countriesSome of them may become competitors in the future, as they already have their own IT clusters and, given the ongoing migration movements, they may be replenished with strong Russian specialists.
An important factor influencing migration behavior is familyDepending on what decision relatives make, what position they take, or what future a potential IT migrant wants for them, family can become a deterrent, a push factor, or a factor in returning to the homeland.
Highly qualified and experienced specialists are more likely to move abroadthan those IT specialists who do not have much experience yet. At the same time, the hypothesis that work experience is associated with the choice of certain, most technologically developed territories for relocation was not confirmed: the trend of leaving workers with great expertise is characteristic of migration in IT in general, and not only for individual migration directions.
Age did not, contrary to expectations, become a significant marker of an IT migrant. However, it turned out that marital status influences the propensity to move: IT workers with partners are more likely NOT to leave Russia.
Knowledge of a foreign language is not the main factor influencing the decision to move abroad – neither a deterrent nor a push factor. Rather, an inverse relationship is found: those who have not moved abroad have a greater command of foreign languages (according to subjective assessment).
The key hypothesis, formulated based on the results of the preliminary qualitative research (interviews with IT specialists), was the assumption that the main motive for their move to another country was the increase in internal experiences, feelings of anxiety and insecurity. It was confirmed by quantitative data: it turned out that this motive is chosen by respondents most often; other significant motives are political and ideological factors.
However anxiety reduction does NOT cause return migration. It turned out that the push and pull factors do not always coincide, and the main motive for the return of IT specialists, both those who have returned and those planning their return, is homesickness and longing for loved ones (friends and family). Although it is important to note that The overall level of anxiety among surveyed IT workers has noticeably decreased by the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024.
Finally, the hypothesis was confirmed that student status, which, according to the law, allows for a deferment from military service, influences the decision to leave. IT specialists who are full-time students at a Russian university are much less likely to leave Russia.
