Interim results of Moscow renovation 08.2024

Hi all!

The first wave of Moscow renovation is almost over and we can begin to evaluate its results. Below the cut I looked at how many houses were affected by the renovation, how much the plans are being fulfilled in general, which districts are ahead of the plan and which are lagging behind. To do this, I collected data from several open sources, marked each house according to its wave and grouped the data not only in general, but also by districts and by areas.

To analyze the results, I used data from the following sources:

The hardest part was labeling the houses according to their waves. Thanks to my developments from the previous article, I was able to distribute the houses according to the first order, but I couldn’t automate the parsing from the second and third. In the end, I had to label 825 houses manually. I placed all the source code, as well as the resulting datasets, in the repository at githubnow anyone can use it.

In addition, we managed to find out the status of each house – it could be demolished, in the status of ongoing resettlement, or not affected by the renovation program. All this was parsed from the official website of the renovation fund.

In order to understand how successfully renovation is being carried out in each of Moscow's districts, whether it is lagging behind or ahead, you just need to know the status of the building and its wave.

The source code repository is on GitHub.

According to data from the renovation fund website, the program included a total of 5176 houses, of which:

The first wave 2020-2024, it included 1193 houses, share of total 23.0%
The second wave 2025-2028, it included 1888 houses, share of total number 36.5%
The third wave 2029-2032, it included 2095 houses, share of total number 40.5%

If we consider that the purpose of renovation is primarily to resettle residents into new houses, and not to demolish old ones, then we can add up already demolished houses and those in which resettlement is currently underway. I mean that if a house was resettled and demolished, then in this case, renovation affected it in the same way as those that are in the process of resettlement, if they managed to start before the end of their wave. This is a small assumption, but it shows the number of houses that actively entered the program, and allows us to separate them from others waiting their turn.

As of today, the first wave is almost over, there are just over three months left until its completion. This means that all the houses of the first wave that have not yet been demolished should be in the process of resettlement at least, let's see how far it has been completed at the moment.

Based on the data on how many houses from the first wave of renovation were affected, one can understand its results at the current moment – the first wave of renovation actively affected 921 house and it is currently completed on 77.2%

Let's take a closer look at how many houses should be demolished and what actually exists.

We can tell you how many houses have been demolished since the program began – 461 house. We also know the number of houses that are being resettled now – 565 houses.

This way it will be possible to estimate how many houses were actively affected by renovation without paying attention to their wave. The number of houses that renovation has actively affected at the moment is 461 + 565 = 1026 house, their share of the total number is 19.8%this number shows the overall completion of the program over the past four years from its inception.

There are only a few months left until the end of the first wave, but for its full implementation it is necessary to cover another 1193 − 921 = 272 at home, which leads to debt in 5.26% At the moment and by the beginning of 2025 this figure will most likely not change much. Building a new house or moving an old one is not a quick matter.

The second wave is even larger than the first in terms of the number of houses, and the third is the largest, so the lag will probably continue to grow. Although of course who knows, more houses are being resettled now (565 houses) than were demolished during the past period of the program (461 houses). Renovation is already behind schedule, so it will be able to finish on time only if it is forced in some places.

Based on this, we can evaluate the renovation from the other side – without taking into account the waves, because in some areas the houses of the second or even third wave are already affected. As a result of the first wave, 23.0% of all houses should have actively participated in the program, and at the moment their number is 19.8%. In other words, 23.0% – 19.8% = 3.2% we can say that this is the minimum estimate of the debt.

This gives us an optimistic estimate of the debt of 3.2% and a negative estimate of 5.26%. These figures should not change much in the time remaining until the end of the first wave. Considering how complex and large the current renovation program is, the debt of 3.2% to 5.26% looks simply fantastically small.

The resulting analytics for each district and each region.

Statistics by district

	District	Completion of the first wave %	According to plan from the total number in the district %	Current of total in district %	Ahead of or behind plan %
1	Zelenograd Administrative Okrug	100	35.29	35.29	0
2	South-West Administrative District	85.98	20.58	18.46	-2.12
3	SVAO	82.95	17.64	15.43	-2.2
4	Central Administrative District	82.93	37.27	31.82	-5.45
5	JSC	82.17	28.09	27.01	-1.07
6	South-East Administrative District	80.66	22.13	19.93	-2.2
7	South Administrative District	78.02	24.07	21.43	-2.65
8	TiNAO	76.81	55.42	46.59	-8.84
9	SZAO	74.51	11.81	9.95	-1.85
10	SAO	72.12	20.19	15.92	-4.27
11	VAO	65.02	21	16.01	-4.99

Statistics by districts

	District	District	Completion of the first wave %	According to the plan from the total number in the area %	Current from total in the area %	Ahead of or behind plan %
1	South-West Administrative District	Konkovo	100	39.02	43.9	4.88
2	South-West Administrative District	Northern Butovo	100	50	50	0
3	South-West Administrative District	Cherry trees	100	5.88	5.88	0
4	South-West Administrative District	South Butovo	100	38.46	38.46	0
5	South-West Administrative District	Yasenevo	100	100	100	0
6	South-West Administrative District	Zyuzino	90	10.99	9.89	-1.1
7	South-West Administrative District	Academic	77.78	94.74	73.68	-21.05
8	South-West Administrative District	Obruchevsky	70	58.82	52.94	-5.88
9	South-West Administrative District	Kotlovka	66.67	14.63	9.76	-4.88
10	South-West Administrative District	Lomonosovsky	50	26.67	13.33	-13.33
11	South-West Administrative District	Gagarinsky	There are no first wave houses	0	0	0
12	South-East Administrative District	Vykhino-Zhulebino	100	18.33	26.67	8.33
13	South-East Administrative District	Yuzhnoportovy	100	18.52	22.22	3.7
14	South-East Administrative District	Ryazansky	100	20.83	23.61	2.78
15	South-East Administrative District	Lefortovo	100	45	47.5	2.5
16	South-East Administrative District	Nizhny Novgorod	100	30.43	32.61	2.17
17	South-East Administrative District	Lublin	77.08	31.58	24.34	-7.24
18	South-East Administrative District	Kuzminki	68.57	12.2	10.45	-1.74
19	South-East Administrative District	Kapotnya	62.5	28.57	17.86	-10.71
20	South-East Administrative District	Textile workers	23.08	27.66	6.38	-21.28
21	South-East Administrative District	Printers	There are no first wave houses	0	0	0
22	South Administrative District	Donskoy	100	16	20	4
23	South Administrative District	Biryulevo West	100	33.33	33.33	0
24	South Administrative District	Moskvorechye-Saburovo	100	45.45	45.45	0
25	South Administrative District	Chertanovo Yuzhnoye	100	77.78	77.78	0
26	South Administrative District	Danilovsky	84.62	41.94	35.48	-6.45
27	South Administrative District	Tsaritsyno	83.33	12.77	12.77	0
28	South Administrative District	Upland	66.67	22.64	24.53	1.89
29	South Administrative District	Biryulevo Vostochnoye	62.5	47.06	29.41	-17.65
30	South Administrative District	Nagatino-Sadovniki	60	22.73	13.64	-9.09
31	South Administrative District	Nagatinsky Zaton	57.14	25.93	16.67	-9.26
32	Central Administrative District	Krasnoselsky	100	37.5	37.5	0
33	Central Administrative District	Tagansky	100	31.25	31.25	0
34	Central Administrative District	Presnensky	84	47.17	39.62	-7.55
35	Central Administrative District	Basmanny	62.5	30.77	23.08	-7.69
36	Central Administrative District	Arbat	There are no first wave houses	0	0	0
37	Central Administrative District	Zamoskvorechye	There are no first wave houses	0	0	0
38	Central Administrative District	Meshchansky	There are no first wave houses	0	0	0
39	Central Administrative District	Tverskoy	There are no first wave houses	0	0	0
40	Central Administrative District	Khamovniki	There are no first wave houses	0	0	0
41	TiNAO	Shcherbinka	100	36.11	61.11	25
42	TiNAO	Troitsk	100	23.53	29.41	5.88
43	TiNAO	“Mosrentgen”	100	100	100	0
44	TiNAO	Vnukovskoye	100	100	100	0
45	TiNAO	Desyonovskoye	100	100	100	0
46	TiNAO	Marushkinskoe	100	100	100	0
47	TiNAO	Mikhailovo-Yartsevskoye	100	41.94	41.94	0
48	TiNAO	Ryazanovskoe	100	100	100	0
49	TiNAO	Sosenskoe	100	100	100	0
50	TiNAO	Filimonkovskoe	100	100	100	0
51	TiNAO	Kokoshkino	28.57	100	28.57	-71.43
52	TiNAO	Voronovskoye	0	100	0	-100
53	TiNAO	Kyiv	0	100	0	-100
54	TiNAO	Klenovskoe	0	100	0	-100
55	TiNAO	Novofedorovskoye	0	100	0	-100
56	TiNAO	Krasnopakhorskoe	There are no first wave houses	0	0	0
57	TiNAO	Moscow	There are no first wave houses	0	0	0
58	TiNAO	Pervomayskoye	There are no first wave houses	0	0	0
59	TiNAO	Shchapovskoe	There are no first wave houses	0	0	0
60	SZAO	Shchukino	100	11.9	14.29	2.38
61	SZAO	Pokrovskoe-Streshnevo	100	6.25	8.33	2.08
62	SZAO	South Tushino	100	5.41	6.31	0.9
63	SZAO	Mitino	100	42.86	42.86	0
64	SZAO	Northern Tushino	77.78	15	13.33	-1.67
65	SZAO	Khoroshevo-Mnevniki	50	14.01	7.64	-6.37
66	SVAO	Maryina Roshcha	100	29.17	37.5	8.33
67	SVAO	Yaroslavsky	100	1.89	3.77	1.89
68	SVAO	Losinoostrovsky	100	20.59	22.06	1.47
69	SVAO	Alekseevsky	100	17.65	17.65	0
70	SVAO	Babushkinsky	100	23.66	23.66	0
71	SVAO	Lianozovo	100	40	40	0
72	SVAO	Otradnoe	100	28.57	28.57	0
73	SVAO	North Medvedkovo	100	100	100	0
74	SVAO	Northern	100	100	100	0
75	SVAO	South Medvedkovo	100	100	100	0
76	SVAO	Rostokino	50	10.53	5.26	-5.26
77	SVAO	Ostankinsky	50	13.95	6.98	-6.98
78	SVAO	Butyrsky	40	18.52	7.41	-11.11
79	SVAO	Marfino	25	10.81	2.7	-8.11
80	SVAO	Sviblovo	0	12.82	0	-12.82
81	SVAO	Altufevsky	There are no first wave houses	0	0	0
82	SVAO	Bibirevo	There are no first wave houses	0	0	0
83	SAO	Western Degunino	100	22.22	24.44	2.22
84	SAO	Molzhaninovsky	100	100	100	0
85	SAO	Dmitrovsky	94.12	30.91	30.91	0
86	SAO	Beskudnikovsky	80	81.08	64.86	-16.22
87	SAO	Timiryazevsky	72.73	24.44	17.78	-6.67
88	SAO	Golovinsky	50	13.14	10.22	-2.92
89	SAO	Koptevo	38.46	10.57	4.07	-6.5
90	SAO	Voikovsky	33.33	9.09	3.03	-6.06
91	SAO	Airport	There are no first wave houses	0	0	0
92	SAO	Left Bank	There are no first wave houses	0	0	0
93	SAO	Savelovsky	There are no first wave houses	0	0	0
94	SAO	Falcon	There are no first wave houses	0	0	0
95	SAO	Khoroshevsky	There are no first wave houses	0	0	0
96	Zelenograd Administrative Okrug	Kryukovo	100	32.14	32.14	0
97	Zelenograd Administrative Okrug	Old Kryukovo	100	100	100	0
98	Zelenograd Administrative Okrug	Silino	There are no first wave houses	0	0	0
99	JSC	Novo-Peredelkino	100	42.86	100	57.14
100	JSC	Ochakovo-Matveevskoe	100	26.87	29.85	2.99
101	JSC	Kuntsevo	100	3.28	3.28	0
102	JSC	Ramenki	100	100	100	0
103	JSC	Vernadsky Avenue	86.84	64.41	55.93	-8.47
104	JSC	Solntsevo	84.62	30.23	34.88	4.65
105	JSC	Mozhaisk	82.86	23.65	20.27	-3.38
106	JSC	Fili-Davydkovo	65.62	26.89	17.65	-9.24
107	JSC	Filevsky Park	63.64	31.43	22.86	-8.57
108	JSC	Vnukovo	There are no first wave houses	0	54.55	54.55
109	VAO	East Izmailovo	100	29.46	35.71	6.25
110	VAO	Novogireevo	100	9.72	9.72	0
111	VAO	Northern Izmailovo	85	22.35	21.23	-1.12
112	VAO	Metrotown	80	20	17.33	-2.67
113	VAO	Perovo	68.97	14.8	10.2	-4.59
114	VAO	Kosino-Ukhtomsky	53.57	50.91	29.09	-21.82
115	VAO	Ivanovskoye	50	38.1	19.05	-19.05
116	VAO	Sokolina Gora	33.33	13.24	5.88	-7.35
117	VAO	Golyanovo	33.33	41.58	13.86	-27.72
118	VAO	Bogorodskoe	25	8.33	2.08	-6.25
119	VAO	Oriental	There are no first wave houses	0	78.57	78.57
120	VAO	Preobrazhenskoe	There are no first wave houses	0	0	0
121	VAO	Sokolniki	There are no first wave houses	0	0	0

Final figures for the renovation program as a whole:

Completion of the first wave at the moment is 77.2%.

	share of the total number of houses included in the renovation
According to the plan, by the time the first wave is completed, the renovation should include houses	23.0%
The current number of houses actively included in renovation, regardless of the wave	19.8%
Debt on first wave buildings not affected by renovation	-5.26%
Debt on first wave buildings not affected by renovation minus second and third wave buildings actively included in the program	-3.2%