If you don't have a roof in the country or a large corporation, you won't be able to do international business.

How and what was the impact of the case of Pavel Durov's detention in France? What conclusions can be drawn for other similar companies and users? And is there still an island of stability left in our changing world in 2024? I described the disappointing results of this whole situation.

Today, insider information is coming from all sides that Telegram has ceased to be the same. The reason was a change in the messenger's security policy: now users can complain to moderators about content in private chats. However, various Telegram channels hint at much more negative changes, writing that, according to their data, Durov has handed over the encryption keys to the platform to the French and even British intelligence services.

I have a rather dark feeling about this whole story and I believe that the situation developed something like this.

A man came to Durov's camera and said that he represented one of the special services, it doesn't matter which one, but most likely the American one, because Macron himself would hardly dare to do such a thing alone. Then he began to threaten in every possible way and outlined the prospects: if all access to install backdoors or other methods for controlling Telegram are not given up, the Americans will not guarantee the health of all members of his family, and he himself will be imprisoned for those same 20 years that were announced in the media, so the only chance is to somehow come to an agreement “in a good way.”

Then the rest of the time was spent on composing a cover story, after which everyone was released. This was not started just to chat – no one can withstand such an ultimatum.

Why do I think so? I would like to be wrong, but such situations cannot be resolved otherwise…

In this regard, I had various thoughts, for example, that the position of any large business is now becoming extremely precarious.

1. So far, the juiciest part is that foreign intelligence services could have access to Telegram, but ours could not. But it’s probably only a matter of time.

2. For marketing, this is so-so, although large companies may well have sensitive correspondence, but for politicians, this whole situation is just a pitchfork.

On the other hand, can any uncontrolled messenger exist anywhere in our time?

It seems that no, unless some hobbyist releases a solution that is difficult to crack.

What else does all this mean?

3. Today, all large and perhaps even medium-sized businesses are becoming heavily dependent on connections in the regions where they operate. It's not even about having to actively engage in GR. Now, connections in some powerful corporate conglomerates are also needed, because the world is fragmenting and different geographical zones will be ruled by their own elite groups. And they may simply not let a company enter the market that is competitive with them, does not want to pay for entry or integrate into production chains. Or they will even rip it apart through corruption in power and connections in local special services.

4. All these ridiculous arguments about the “free market” that will supposedly arrange everything itself, used to be tales for suckers, and now they have become just memes. The simplest example is the confrontation between America and China, although the protectionism of Europe is also quite indicative.

5. In short, it is no longer possible to have a billion-dollar international asset without being part of some elite group. No protection at the state level or shadowy connections with a top corporation – you will be pressed and terrorized until you are deprived of a controlling stake in management. If problems can be created for Trump, hounded like a dog and shot with a rifle, then lesser persons have no chance at all. And the world has not yet fully entered the height of the division and redistribution of property of the collapsing capitalist system, now is only the beginning of the process.

6. Information security is becoming the most important sector in organizing a business at the hardware, software and user level. It is no longer possible to do without building such a system – any losses can destroy a company that does not monitor its presence on the network. The second layer here should be PR.

7. Well, and finally, the illusions of many people that it is possible to hide from this damned Putin's Mordor to the blessed West in some wonderful Dubai and there, with your feet up on the table, and your beautiful face turned to the friendly sun, comfortably conduct your wonderful business have been completely dispelled. No, that won't work anymore.

8. There are many problems in Russia that have been poorly solved for decades and they need to be urgently corrected, otherwise we will lose all chances to take advantage of the world's restructuring and take a new place in it. To put it mildly, it is not very smart to accept idiotic restrictions with registration for Telegram channels for 10,000 subscribers against the backdrop of France cramming the owner of this platform into its dungeons.

What's the bottom line? Any remaining anonymity and privacy in Telegram can be considered lost, even if everything ends smoothly and especially if it does – trust will still be undermined.

Well, if your company has an international business, then today it is necessary to have some support in Russia or the West, because even Dubai is only a temporary solution to the problem. If there is none, then you will have to constantly maneuver, and without much hope for a good outcome. You can no longer stay above the fray and sooner or later you will have to choose a side. Further, the disengagement with the Western world will only grow – the Americans do not plan to ease the sanctions pressure. In the last couple of weeks alone, Miro and Notion announced their departure from Russia, and Microsoft announced the shutdown of the Microsoft 365, Office 365 and Teams packages.

If everything continues to develop in this way, then in the near future, splits or, on the contrary, convergence of companies with different centers of power will begin to appear everywhere. Markets will become unstable for some time and in a couple of years all principles of doing business will change significantly. And each geographic region will have its own set of social networks, messengers, hostings and key programs. There will no longer be a single global world network.

P.S. If this is not the right hub, please tell me where it would be better to post the text.