Hamster Kombat Listing. Tokenomics Analysis. How Much Will the HMSTR Token Cost?
Intoxicated by dreams of incredible riches, the hamster tappers finally waited for their payouts. Half a year of painstaking work, daily visits to the application, completing tasks, watching useless advertising, on which the Hamster team made a fortune, and now this day has come. The cherished coins, which on September 26 will become a real cryptocurrency and will be traded on the largest exchanges, began to shine on the wallets of the multi-million army of hamsters. But where did all these tears come from? Why did the players' dreams crash on the rocks of harsh and unfriendly reality? How did the coin distribution go? Who really made money on this phenomenon? And how much will the HMSTR token cost on the listing? We analyze it in our new material. Get the kids away from the screens! We're starting!
What every self-respecting Hamster Kombat user says after the drop.
Content:
1. What is Hamster Kombat and how have the last six months been for the “tappers”?
2. HMSTR token. What is it for?
3. Hamster Kombat Tokenomics Analysis: Who Will Receive HMSTR Tokens?
4. Is it worth staking your HMSTR tokens?
5. How much could the HMSTR token cost? Comparative analysis.
6. Who will really make money on Hamster Kombat?
7. What will happen to the HMSTR token on listing?
1. What is Hamster Kombat and how have the last six months been for the “tappers”?
In a few words, I’ll remind you what Hamster Kombat is and how the last six months have been spent by users.
Hamster Kombat — is a cryptocurrency exchange CEO simulator game created on the Telegram mini-app platform. In other words, a continuation of the tapalok trend.
You could tap in the hamster, but you got funny crumbs for it – there was no point. The point was to pump up cards that increase the passive income of virtual currency. To do this, you had to go into the game for 10-15 minutes and pump up.
Then new mechanics appeared – daily combos, ciphers, various garbage games inside, etc. Coins could also be obtained for watching ads and Hamster Kombat videos on YouTube.
For six months, Hamster players (let's call them “tappers”) dreamed, if not of a yacht or a mansion, then certainly of a brand new iPhone. But all their dreams were destroyed in one day. On the very day when the token distribution took place. An endless stream of tears poured out from people who for some reason decided that they should be paid big money for simple clicks in the application.
As a result, the drop figures are as follows:
Average drop according to surveys of various hamster publics – 2000-3000 HMSTR. How much this will be in dollars – read in the following sections.
The drop depended on the following parameters:
passive income (profit per hour);
completing daily tasks;
friends (their number and activity);
achievements;
keys.
2.3 million players were banned for cheating – they used software to select keys or tap the screen.
Influencers who invited people to the hamster using their referral links earned much more, but there are not many of them compared to the general mass. And, by the way, no one should be angry about this either. Although I did not give my referral link (even though I have the most read article on the Russian-language Internet about Hamster) purely on principle, I understand perfectly well that the contribution of bloggers to the development of the project is much stronger than the contribution of an ordinary user. So everyone got what they deserved)
2. HMSTR token. What is it for?
The price of any asset on the cryptocurrency market (and not only) is determined by the ratio of supply and demand. And in order to understand the demand for the Hamster Kombat token, you need to understand – What will it be used for anyway and who needs it?
In our language, the language of the Cryptans, it is called utility token. So what is the utility of the HMSTR coin?
At the moment, based on Hamster Kombat documentation, their token will be used:
As an in-game currency. Purchase in-game items (e.g. character skins), upgrades, and services (e.g. premium support, community tools, and SDKs for game developers).
For exclusive access. Users will be able to access limited-time events, squad missions, PvP battles, and real-time events with the HMSTR token.
In fact, as I assumed at the start of all this hamster hype, the team was unable to come up with anything interesting. In fact, the token is only needed by active users of the ecosystem and its fans, of whom, in my opinion, after the distribution of the drop will be incredibly few.
3. Hamster Kombat Tokenomics Analysis. Who will receive HMSTR tokens and when?
The most important part of any crypto project is tokenomics. It can be used to understand the participants of the token economy, who will receive tokens, in what volume and when. In our first material on Hamster Kombat, we looked at the leaked tokenomics, now it has changed a lot. Let's analyze the tokenomics and make assumptions about what might happen to the token after the listing.
For the initial information, we will take the Binance data, which the exchange kindly provided to investors for review. I will leave a link to this material Here.
According to the stated tokenomics, total token supply (Total supply) is 100,000,000,000 HMSTR. At the same time initial supply volume (the number of tokens that will initially be in circulation or Initial supply) is equal to 64,375,000,000 HMSTR (64.38% of the total supply).
How was the token distributed between user groups?
Distribution of HMSTR tokens among user groups. Source – Binance
Player Rewards Season 1 – 60% of tokens or 60,000,000,000 HMSTR will be received by players in Hamster in the first season.
Player Rewards Season 2 – 15% or 15,000,000,000 HMSTR The team reserved it for the second season. This was obviously done in order to somehow maintain interest in their application after the listing.
Team – 8% or 8,000,000,000 HMSTR allocated to the project team.
Partnerships & Grants – 6% or 6,000,000,000 HMSTR set aside to pay for partner programs and to allocate grants. With this amount, the project will try to support the activity of developers within its ecosystem.
Liquidity – 4% or 4,000,000,000 tokens allocated to ensure the liquidity of the token. They will be transferred to market makers to align the exchange rate and maintain liquidity in the pools.
Marketing – 4% or 4,000,000,000 HMSTR for marketing. Will be used to advertise the Hamster Kombat token and products.
Binance Launchpool – 3% or 3,000,000,000 tokens allocated for distribution among those who will participate in the Binance launch pool. our Telegram channel We will tell you how to do this and earn HMSTR tokens for staking BNB without risks.
Okay. Now we understand where and to whom the tokens will go. We can already draw some conclusions. But still, this information is not enough. Let's look at the unlock schedule to understand when the tokens of different user groups will hit the market.
HMSTR Token Unlock Schedule – When You'll Get Your Tokens. Source – Binance
So, we see that at the start 60% of tokens will be unlocked, of which:
53.25% (53,250,000,000 HMSTR) – “tapalchikov” tokens;
3% (3,000,000,000 HMSTR) – Binance launchpool;
4% (4,000,000,000 HMSTR) – tokens to ensure liquidity;
4% (4,000,000,000 HMSTR) – marketing;
0.13% (13,000,000 HMSTR) – grants and partnership programs.
Now let's assume what will happen to these tokens after the listing. While the tokens for liquidity and the tokens allocated for marketing will most likely remain untouched, there are big doubts about the other categories. Or rather, not even doubts, but I am almost certain that most of them 53.25 billion HMTSRwhich the “tapalschiki” will receive, will be immediately dumped into the market. And this, for a moment, 82.3% of the total number of tokens that will be in circulation at the start. This is quite a lot. And here the question arises, will the Hamster Kombat team be able to buy back all these tokens so that it does not roll away to zero? And will it do this at all?
Next, the tokens reserved for the launch pool are almost 100% likely to go to the market. Personally, I use every Binance launch pool to increase my BNB risk-free, and I always sell all the tokens I receive in the launch. And so does every self-respecting crypto. This is the base.
We add these tokens to those that the “tapers” will receive, and we get potential selling pressure equal to 87.3%It will be difficult to cope with such sell pressure.
The team, of course, has thought out several mechanics to keep “tapers” from selling tokens to the order book. But, to be fair, I will say that they are designed for people who do not understand anything about crypto. Hamster announced staking of its token on all exchanges. In the next section, I will tell you why you should not take your tokens there.
4. Is it worth staking your HMSTR tokens?
Staking tokens immediately upon listing is one of the favorite tactics of projects to maintain the price of a token. The goal of the project is to show huge percentages in this staking (on Binance it is more than 300% per annum) and force you not to sell tokens at the first opportunity, but to block them for an indefinite period.
Basic, staking – this is blocking a token in some instrument for additional profitability. But often such a situation occurs that due to staking of the coins themselves you get more, but due to the fact that the price of the coin falls several times while your tokens are blocked, in dollar equivalent you lose.
Immediately after the listing, you will be persuaded by all available means to stake your coins on Binance or directly inside the Telegram Wallet. This will allow the project to reduce the selling pressure on the order book and maintain the price. During this time, the token will become cheaper in price, and you will receive even less than those pennies that you see in your application today.
Therefore, under no circumstances should we put HMSTR coins into staking, unless, of course, we want to be even more upset.
5. How much could the HMSTR token cost? Comparative analysis.
The main question that interests the inquisitive minds of the hamster “tappers” is how much will the Hamster Kombat token cost after listing and full entry into the market? In hamster chats, I heard the craziest forecasts – a dollar for one HMSTR token, $0.1 per token, and someone is still overly optimistic and believes that the hamster will be released at a price of $10 per HMSTR (and he does not care that then the capitalization of the project will be greater than the capitalization of the entire crypto market). To dispel such myths, we will not poke a finger in the sky, but will conduct a comparative analysis with similar projects and impose it on the tokenomics of HMSTR.
So, there are enough similar HMSTR projects on the market. Let's compare it with the most similar ones in terms of retrodrop and market entry mechanics. These are the Notcoin, Dogs and Catizen projects. All of them already have their tokens, traded on all cryptocurrency exchanges.
Below I will provide their market indicators:
Notcoin Market Metrics. Source – Coinmarketcap.
Notcoin – a pioneer in the world of slippers. in this material I explained why none of the subsequent similar apps will be able to repeat its success.
The average drop to users was $200-400.
DOGS project market metrics. Source – Coinmarketcap.
DOGS – an app that didn't require tapping. You just had to log in, find out the age of your Telegram account, and complete a series of social tasks.
The average drop for users was $10-20.
Catizen project market metrics. Source – Coinmarketcap.
Catizen – the mechanics are as similar to the hamster as possible, even the same road maps (game center, integration with board games, etc.).
The drop was approximately X3-X4 of your donation. Those who didn't donate either didn't receive anything at all or received pennies (less than 10 bucks).
We see that Notcoin had the most successful entry into the market. At the moment, the project's capitalization was $2 billion. It entered the market at an estimate of $1 billion.
Now let's assume several outcomes of events for the Hamster's entry into the market. Let's go from optimistic to pessimistic.
Optimistic option.
According to optimistic estimates, the Hamster Kombat project may come out with a capitalization similar to Notcoin at its peak. This is $2 billion. I will note that this is a really super optimistic option, which I do not believe in, but for a more objective calculation, I will indicate it. In this case, with an initial token issue of 100 billion HMSTR, one token on the listing will cost $0.02.
I will repeat once again that I do not believe in such an outcome. In my opinion, a more realistic price for the token is a neutral and pessimistic option.
Neutral option.
According to neutral estimates, Hamster Kombat will be released with a valuation of $1 billion. This is the valuation of the same Notcoin. Yes, Hamster is far from being the pioneer of the tapalok trend, but let's give him some credit for the number of users.
In this case, the price per token on the listing will be $0.01. And in general, this is approximately how users currently rate it on the Bybit premarket.
Hamster Kombat token price on the Bybit crypto exchange premarket.
Pessimistic option.
Let's assume that Hamster Kombat will be released at a valuation close to that of Catizen (CATI token). That's a market cap of around $250 million. In this case, the price per token will be $0.002 per HMSTR.
I consider the most acceptable price for a token to be between $0.002 and $0.01.
So forget about a dollar, ten or a hundred for one token. It's just not possible even in theory.
6. Who will really make money on Hamster Kombat?
I think there is no intrigue here. The creators have already made a lot of money with Hamster Kombat. They made money on advertising. Advertising of casinos, VTB credit cards (they know where to hit, because many “tapalschiki” are clearly experiencing financial problems, since they are ready to sell their time so cheaply), Yandex Market, and so on.
Of course, no one will show us official data on the app's earnings, but according to rough estimates, taking into account the size of Khomyak's audience, each advertising contract cost more than 100 thousand dollars. So do the math)
Gurinovich earned enough for several comfortable lives, and the hamsters learned a good lesson.
7. What will happen to the HMSTR token on the listing? Buy or sell?
Well, the answer to the last question posed in the title – what will happen to the Hamster Kombat token on the listing? How can it behave? Is it worth buying it from the market? And vice versa – is it worth going short on it?
Based on the research and facts presented in the sections above, I would like to summarize several points that affect how the token will behave after listing:
87.3% of the tokens that will initially be released to the market could potentially be sold, as the holders of these tokens are “tapers” who want to take at least a penny for their six-month efforts.
All tapalok tokens are rolled out one way or another after listing (see charts NOT, DOGS And CATIwhich I cited above. Notcoin instantly doubled thanks to the competent work of the team. There was no direct premarket as such, where people could sell their tokens in advance, as was the case with Notcoin vouchers);
The token may be released at a price in the range of $0.002 – $0.01 with an estimate of $250 million to $1 billion. If it is released at a higher estimate, I will boldly short HMSTR on futures.
The conclusion is this – it will be incredibly difficult for the team to maintain the token price on the listing. With a high degree of probability, “tapers” will carry their tokens to the glass and collapse the price. It is unlikely that staking with huge percentages attracts them now – the ephemeral opportunity to earn the same amount in six months in addition to their 20 bucks will not console them.
What can help the team maintain the price?
Only one thing. Fraud. If among the users who received the drop – the majority – are the wallets of the team itself. In this case, they simply will not sell coins from these wallets and will keep the price.
But whether the Hamster Kombat team plays by the rules or not is a completely different story.
Thanks for reading! Write in the comments – how many HMSTR tokens were given to you for your actions and how much time you spent on it. Support and consolation of workers in the comments is always welcome!
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Hugged everyone!
