from atom-sized computers to creating avatars

In his book The Future Files: A Brief History of the Next 50 Years, futurologist Richard Watson discusses how what's happening right now affects what awaits us in the next half-century. Why long-term planning is important if we're going to live in a “good” world. In this article, we'll discuss the possibilities of a “preferred” future — it promises to be interesting!

Creatures with zero intelligence

For a person, such a definition can be equated to an insult, but in the world of high technology, things are different. In computing, this term is used in cases where it is necessary to pack a huge amount of “brain” into a microscopic case. Techies, in general, cope with the task well, but for insurance they bring in futurologists.

For example, chip giant Intel, which employs more than 4,000 people, relies on Brian David Johnson's opinion. According to his predictions, in the near future the supercomputer case will be zero. This reasoning is worth taking into account, since it was Johnson who first declared that energy-intensive PCs were outliving their days, and the future belonged to energy-efficient screens. Smartphones and iPads did not take long to appear.

Intel not only believes in the success of futurologists, but also tries to keep scientists and engineers on their toes so that they do not sit on the once beaten paths. According to one of the founders of the company Andy Grovesin our crazy world only paranoids can survive.

Today, we already have technologies that allow us to place computers almost everywhere and in everything. Previously, computing equipment occupied entire rooms, later it began to fit on desktops, then on laps and in palms. Finally, the cases shrank to the size of a microchip, which is difficult to see with the naked eye.

It has become clear that the computer brain is not just becoming more compact, but is approaching the end point when the chips we are used to can be replaced with atomic transistors.

Johnson announced Intel's next target — 7 nanometers. When this level is reached, integrated circuits will be so small that they can be driven by friction, body heat, or hand motion.

From the field of knowledge with zero dimensions, we need to move to the world of semiconductors – in the 21st century, they are the ones that ensure the operation of smart devices.

What will happen to the most important law of technological development?

Futurologists predicted that the shrinking size of computers would lead to the end of the so-called Gordon E. Moore Law. Back in 1965, Intel co-founder Moore introduced concept A two-part series that will shape technology development for the next 50 years—it concerns the future of transistors.

The first part says that the number of transistors that can be packed into a computer processor of a given size should double every two years.

The second part concerns the most pleasant part: the cost of such computers is reduced by half.

Time has shown that both parts of Moore's Law were correct. However, today the growth rate has accelerated: transistor power doubles in just 18 months. But that's not all. In terms of their parameters, some semiconductor components are approaching the size of an atom. With such “dimensions”, problems with calculations begin to appear. In order to understand the source of the trouble, let's return to Moore's Law and break it down into parts:

• Computer chips contain many layers of transistors.

• The greater their number, the higher the speed and volume of calculations.

• The smaller the transistors, the more of them are packed into each chip.

This determines the progress of technology, but also gives birth problemassociated with a technical limitation. The functionality of devices with ultra-small transistors begins to deteriorate due to the specific behavior of electrons – a “wandering” particle turns into a source of chaos. According to Greg Yerickdirector of future silicon technologies at ARM Research, the researchers are “approaching the limits of traditional silicon scaling.”

Without going into technical details, two main difficulties that Intel and AMD have encountered can be identified from the cloud of problems.

• Due to technical limitations, photonic technologies cannot be developed in their current state.

• The cost of equipment used in this area is prohibitive.

Both deviations are outside the scope of Moore's Law. It is likely that in the near future, researchers will switch to graphene integrated circuitscarbon nanotubes or composites of silicon wafers coated with other materials. This direction will likely determine the further progress of the industry in the next 20-30 years.

The world's smallest computer is currently thought to be an IBM device that can fit through a hole in a salt shaker. It was created to track fraudulent transactions in global supply chains. The microcomputer is expected to contribute to the circulation of counterfeit drugs, an industry that is estimated to generate profits of $600 billion per year.

While companies like IBM and Intel are trying to reach the zero limit in creating intelligent computing systems, futurologists have managed to throw up a new problem.

What breakthroughs await in neurohacking

The expression “You can read my mind!” will soon lose its enthusiastic meaning, because this ability will become commonplace. At least, this is what neurobiologists who have been working on the problem for the past decades think. This area is related to neurohacking, a neologism that describes everything that can improve the functioning of our brain.

Neuroscientists are finding ways to read people's thoughts using special devices. There has been no real progress in this area. achieved researchers at the University of California, Berkeley. The team is working to decode the brain's electrical signals, converting the activity into understandable code. This is one way to help people with dementia. For example, patients with neurotransmitter problems can convert thoughts into understandable speech or hold onto mental activity long enough to express it verbally before the images that arose in the brain are forgotten.

Neurable is developing headphones that track brain signals. The gadget can determinewhen the user is focused and when their attention wanders. Brain responses are recorded from the area around the ear, after which the intelligent Neurable program amplifies them. Unlike Elon Musk's Neuralink implants, interaction in headphone devices occurs without surgical intervention.

With this system, you can change tracks while listening to music, and the gadget can also assess your cognitive health. For example, the headphones tell you when to take a five-minute break, which will help you focus for the next four hours.

Precise work with the brain helps to treat such serious diseases as depression. Previously, the problem was considered exclusively as hardware, correcting the condition with the help of drugs. Intellectual The devices allow you to adapt the impact to the particular psyche of a particular person, that is, to achieve the best result. It is proposed to treat Alzheimer's, Parkinson's and strokes in a similar way.

The possibilities of neurohacking are enormous and priceless, but on the other hand, it is unpleasant to realize that someone can gain access to our thoughts. In connection with these fears, another neologism has even appeared – neuromarketing. This field is no longer aimed at research, but at the direct use of people's brains by manipulating desires through advertising. Where these and similar attempts to “improve” our thinking abilities will lead – time will tell.

Today, we can access not only the brain, but also much simpler information – our data.

How the Big Data sphere will develop

There is an unprecedented amount of text information and images left by users on the Internet. Our activity in the virtual space is already shaping the picture of a new world.

Users' search preferences are analyzed for a reason, but in order to determine subsequent ways of using the Internet. Viewing requests are “optimized”, narrowing access to information, goods and services. The more data the system accumulates about us, the more targeted the search results become.

Big data opens up a “good” and a “bad” future for us. Let’s look at the prospects one by one.

Benefits of Big Data Analysis:

• Faster and more accurate decision making: information found in time influences the results of the choice. For example, data about users plus research of the competitive market help companies to expand the offer of products and services, to attract new customers.

• Better customer interaction: People's needs change depending on the economic situation, region, fashion influences and other factors. Big data provides clarity on each of these issues, increases customer loyalty, and increases sales. Study 2022 shows that 71% of respondents expect brands to understand their needs, but less than 50% say that companies actually do. Big data can help bridge this gap.

• Expanding social opportunities: Well-informed assessments of the status of vulnerable populations will be invaluable in helping nonprofits and stakeholders build support and find additional resources.

Flaws:

• Cost of doing business: The work of attracting and analyzing big data may be too expensive for small and medium-sized companies. Investments are associated not only with storing and processing information, but also with management and cyber protection. Investments may not bring the expected results. Such risks are not scary for large companies, and they will be able to strengthen their positions, while medium and small ones will be forced out of the market.

• Confidentiality: Brands use data collection on shopping habits, and sometimes biometrics, to develop loyalty programs, promotions, and discount offers. However, user experience suggests that the databases are often accessible to third parties. Razorfish 2023 Study showed that about 50% of respondents do not intend to continue cooperation with companies that shared information without their consent.

• Quality: none of the existing big data platforms are able to provide absolutely reliable information. Inaccuracies, duplications, formatting errors create distortions that affect the accuracy of the analysis. And incorrect conclusions affect our lives.

Huge amounts of information may not work quite as we expect in the near future, since no one has a clear idea of ​​how big data companies manage the accumulated information. It is possible that the strategies of use will be aimed at manipulating the decisions of Internet users. Whether you are looking for the necessary information or some options are kindly slipped to you by search algorithms – this difference is difficult to grasp even today, let alone in the future.

A loophole for those who are not satisfied with technical progress

The implementation of digital avatars can bring tangible benefits to businesses in all areas, from active and useful customer interactions to reduced overhead costs. It is expected that By 2030 the metaverse market will amount to $936.6 billion – for comparison, in 2022 it was “only” $65.5 billion.

EY Digital avatars research suggests that the introduction of avatars can engage users on a deeper level. Communication with a digital assistant simplifies the path to purchase or order a service, and the experience is extended to the multiverse. In addition, avatars can significantly expand a brand’s reach, eliminating economic, geographical and other differences among the user audience.

Digital personalities can successfully transfer important skills to doctors, teachers, rescuers, business representatives and other professions where practical experience is important. Avatars are already entering the tourism market and explore places that are difficult for humans to access. The latter is made possible by deep-sea vehicles and sending robots into space.

In the near future, our “live” first life will run parallel to our second virtual life counterparts, which will likely fundamentally change the ability of people to interact with each other.

Conclusion

The quote that the best way to predict the future is to start creating it is attributed to different people. We will not look for the author, but will go straight to the idea. The meaning of the words is that fate can and should be controlled.

Futurologists show what changes may occur in the near and distant future, strongly recommending that these amendments be taken into account.

For example, Joel Barker advises companies not only plan their activities with an eye on the next year, but also track the trends and forecasts that futurologists talk about. Intel's successful activities over decades indicate that this path is the only correct one.