Fifth flight of Starship: what's next?

Just six months later, such a forecast may seem overly pessimistic, although the American authorities slowed down, as best they could, new tests of Elon Musk’s company. For example, instead of the six planned, SpaceX has since conducted only two tests and is unlikely to have time to conduct more than three this year.

Nevertheless, the success of the fifth test on October 13, 2024 is so impressive that even the braking efforts of the FAA and other agencies against its background look in vain. Let us remind you: the landing of Super Heavy (the first stage of Starship) on the launch tower was so precise that it practically did not have to move its “hands”: the first stage almost “danced” with high precision. The second stage also splashed down into the Indian Ocean with ultra-precision: the company's buoys, thrown into the water in the landing area, were able to film the process and the explosion that followed contact with the water. All Raptor 2 of both stages operated without a single failure.

At the same time, the liquid gas refueling systems were connected to the returning stage almost immediately: damage to its nozzles and other systems during the flight was minimal. This is important because the Super Heavy B12 (the first stage used in this flight) flew through the atmosphere with its engines forward and had the highest speed of any rocket system that has ever flown in the Earth's atmosphere without special thermal protection (as on shuttle or Starship second stage).

Some observers were quick to say that there was a fire during the landing of the first stage. In fact, the ignited stream of gas did not flow from the engines – this is a trace of the operation of the pressure relief system in the first stage tanks. Such a system is needed because during landings cryogenic fuel experiences overloads and can create unpleasant pressure surges in individual systems. It’s easier to bleed off the gases in advance – it doesn’t affect anything. Moreover, the company has already demonstrated that the concept of landing on the tower allows you to begin maintenance and even refueling literally within an hour after landing.

Even pieces of the outer skin of the side fairings that flew off and some debris flying out of one of the 33 Raptor 2 nozzles at the first stage did not change the result – they did not affect the flight. Moreover, ships with more advanced Raptor 3 engines will soon fly into space.

Overall, the IFT-5 trial is a big and bright success. The first flight of the Starship system took place just 18 months ago, and the idea of ​​landing on the tower was formulated by Musk only four years ago – and caused, to put it mildly, a restrained reaction even from his colleagues at SpaceX. Hardware work on this system began just six years ago. Such rates have so far only been observed in the American lunar program, although it cost much more.

Most likely, in the next 2-3 launches, SpaceX will achieve landing on the manipulators of the tower and the second stage of Starship. At the Boca Chica cosmodrome, a second Mechazilla is already being completed for this purpose. Another launch pad with two SpaceX landing structures is being built in Florida.

Orbital methane column

With two launch pads and a pair of landing mechanisms, Musk could not only try to salvage the second stage, but also launch two Starships into orbit at the same time.

In this scenario, seven minutes after takeoff, the first stage will land again on one of the launch towers. And the second stage, launched from Boca Chica, will dock with the second stage from Florida in orbit and refuel it. After that, both stages will complete one orbit around the Earth and return to the second launch towers at the spaceports in Texas and Florida.

In-orbit refueling is a critical critical phase of NASA's Artemis III mission. Agency representatives have already noted that its implementation is necessary in order to return American astronauts to the Moon on time. This deadline is quite close: September 2026 – less than two years from now.

To accomplish Artemis III, people will first need to be lifted into orbit on the Orion spacecraft (launched by the SLS rocket), and then sent into lunar orbit. There, Orion will dock with Starship HLS, the lunar version of SpaceX's spacecraft. It will not have thermal protection, but will receive landing supports – after all, Mechazilla has not yet been installed on the Moon. Two astronauts then use the Starship HLS to land on the Moon, deploy there, and return to lunar orbit. There they will transfer back to Orion and return to Earth on it.

For such a flight Starship HLS need to 2,100 tons of fuel. That's more than the Starship second stage requires now, because the current test was flying a second version of the system with 39 Raptor 2 engines in both stages. And next year the third version of Starship will begin to fly – with 44 Raptor 3. The total height of the carrier and ship at the start will increase from 120 meters to 150 meters. This means she needs more fuel.

A large amount of fuel requires many refuelings. The expected payload of Starship v3 is 200 tons. That is, at least a dozen refueling flights of Starship tankers will be required to fill the Starship HLS. This is more than Russia made orbital launches in the first half of 2024.

In other words, to make Artemis III a reality, spaceships must be made to fly on a train schedule. In a short time, you need to launch a dozen Starship systems, and catch them 24 times – six for each of the four towers deployed by that time. The time between these events cannot be too long: liquid methane and oxygen in space gradually boil away. This means that a high rate of launches will be needed in a matter of days, at most a week.

It is unclear when the company will be able to do exactly this kind of refueling, with dozens of flights and connections, rather than just one connection. But it will almost certainly be able to reach the required level of capabilities before September 2026. This is indicated by the rapid progress in fine-tuning the system over the past year and a half.

Why the US Expects Artemis III Won't Release on Time

Indeed, the Western media openly, and NASA officials on the sidelines, say that there will be no return of Americans to the Moon in September 2026. And they all cite the unavailability of Starship HLS as the first reason for this “will not happen.”

I doubt this explanation. Until September 2026, more time passed from the first launch of the fully assembled Starship system to testing on October 13. It is likely that all four launch towers at both launch sites will be completed in 2025. How can SpaceX not have a ready Starship HLS in a couple of years?

At the same time, one cannot but agree with the American trade press and NASA that the landing of astronauts on the Starship HLS in September 2026 is excluded. Only the reason is different: NASA does not have working spacesuits. The Axiom startup, which took on the task of implementing them three years ago, is not yet able to cope: it has already carried out initial testing of the shells of spacesuits with people, but so far without life support systems.

This already difficult task is especially critical for the planned Artemis III. It should pass near the south pole of the Moon, where the temperature is not very high even during the day. In addition, all the astronaut routes being developed partially run through shaded areas. This means that spacesuits must operate stably at temperatures of at least -180 °C. No one has yet solved this problem in the United States.

Yes, SpaceX makes its own spacesuits, but today they are still at the beginning of their journey: they use a hose with gases coming from the ship. By September 2026, it is doubtful that they will reach a level that will allow movement on the Moon. The Russian Orlans have such capabilities, fortunately their predecessors, the Krechety, were created specifically for lunar conditions. But for obvious reasons, NASA will not be able to use the Eagles.

Let's summarize. Starship's fifth test went so well that it will almost certainly be ready for a crewed mission to the Moon in September 2026. But he will be ready for it alone: ​​NASA will not keep up with the pace of SpaceX, and without spacesuits the landing makes no sense.

But that doesn't mean it won't happen. Elon Musk may well land the ship on the Moon automatically, without people on board. This will be both a demonstration of the system’s capabilities and a definite thumbs down on NASA’s nose, showing that the Agency cannot make a spacesuit in the time it took SpaceX to develop an entire transport system.

Well, what about a full-fledged landing of astronauts on the Moon? It is still difficult to predict the time frame for suits to be ready to move along it. Only SpaceX has a fairly high development dynamics, but they are new to this area and make fairly typical mistakes for beginners. It would be great if the company succeeds by 2027, but this is the most optimistic estimate available today.