experts predict a collapse in PC shipments in the global market in 2023. Reasons and solutions

At the very beginning of the year, we wrote that the decline in sales of laptops and PCs predicted earlier by analysts lags behind the real state of affairs. And this despite the fact that the experts were quite pessimistic in their forecast. But that’s not all – as it turned out, the fall is gradually accelerating, so that the current situation is ahead of the most negative scenarios. And this despite the fact that in the IV quarter of 2022, sales of PCs and laptops fell by 28.1%. It would seem – where else to fall. But apparently there is more to come. Details are under the cut.



What’s up with this market again?


In short, everything is bad. For example, according to the forecast of the International Data Corporation (IDC), in 2023, PC shipments will fall even more,
than in 2022. From October 1 to December 31, compared to the same period in 2021, the desktop and laptop market collapsed by about 28.1%. This figure was obtained by analyzing the sales dynamics of the largest PC vendors in the world. And yes, we are not talking about finances, we are talking about sales of devices in pieces. Analysts studied the dynamics of sales of all devices that fit the definition of “personal computer”. For the fourth quarter of 2022, the total number of devices sold was 67.2 million, which is not so much, given the size of the market.

According to the new forecast, in 2023 will be shipped 403.1 million units of personal computers instead of 429.5 million predicted at the end of 2022. According to analysts, as a result, the global PC market, including laptops and other devices, will fall to the level of 2018, the pre-pandemic period. In general, then the vendors felt not so terrible, but not as good as a few months after the onset of covid. So far, however, it is not entirely clear whether sales will decline even more, or whether they will still remain at the level of 2018.

There are many reasons for the fall. The main factors are related to the end of the pandemic. So, separate foci of COVID-19 appear somewhere, but rarely, small and not for long. So a resumption of the situation of the past years can hardly be expected. Many employees who previously worked remotely have returned to offices that have all the necessary equipment for work. That is, you do not need to buy anything.

In addition, there is another factor. This is an overflow of warehouses of PC vendors and components for them. We are talking about companies like Acer, Asus and MSI. They sold products in bulk during the growth of pandemic demand, so to speak, as well as during the period of shortage of electronics. But they did not immediately notice that demand was falling, perhaps even hoping that this was a temporary phenomenon. As a result, companies were unable to sell as many PCs, laptops, smartphones as they had previously planned, and ended up with warehouses full of their own products.

And the last thing is the strengthening of the US dollar (at least, already predicted by financial analysts) and growing inflation in many countries, which affects the purchasing power of the inhabitants of most countries of the world.

Is there any hope for a recovery in sales?



In general, yes, but not in 2023, but in 2024 – that’s when experts predict the beginning of a slow market recovery. Then, according to representatives of analytical agencies, the fall may be replaced by an increase in the volume of shipments of equipment by 3.6% in pieces compared to 2023.

According to analysts, after the fall in sales, recovery will begin, with growth of about 2.9% per year. Tablet sales will recover less actively, with a CAGR of around 0%.

Stimulant of the “revival” of the market


They will most likely be the release of a new OS from Microsoft. So, in 2025, support for Windows 10 Home, Pro, Pro for Workstations and Pro Education editions ends. In 2019, the impetus for the growth of the PC market was the cessation of support for Windows 7. After that, many companies began to update their fleet of equipment, purchasing more modern PCs and laptops that can easily “pull” the new OS.

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But the current time frame is different from anything before, so the stimulus may not be as effective as predicted. But here we can only guess. So far, only one thing is absolutely clear – in the near future, PC sales will fall.

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