Anomalies in electoral statistics in the 2021 State Duma elections by 125 DECs

The territory of the 125th district election commission includes the city formations near Moscow Korolev, Pushkino and Sergiev Posad.

Following the voting on September 19, 2021 of the elections of deputies of the State Duma in the federal electoral district, the Central Election Commission published the following results:

According to official data, the United Russia party wins the elections with a result of about 46%, the closest rival of the ruling party, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, is gaining only 19% of the vote. The results of voting by territorial election commissions differ markedly. The best results of United Russia are observed in Sergiev Posad, the worst in Korolev, the situation is diametrically opposite for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation.

The results of any elections in Russia are in doubt, and these elections are no exception.

Let’s evaluate the electoral statistics of the district, for this we will consider the data of the precinct election commissions, such in the districts 377, 122 in the Korolevskaya TEC, 98 in Pushkinskaya and 157 in Sergiev Posadskaya.

PEC statistics:

The turnout is average 44%, RMS 15%, minimum 23%, maximum 99%.

The share of United Russia is average 42%, RMS 17%, minimum 19%, maximum 82%.

The share of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation is average 21%, RMS 8%, minimum 2%, maximum 35%.

We will personally dwell on extreme PECs further.

The average provision of polling stations with ballots is 81% of the registered number of voters.

The correlation coefficient between the share of votes of United Russia and the turnout percentage is 0.83, for all other parties the correlation is negative, in particular, for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation it is -0.83, i.e. there is a close statistical relationship. This can be clearly seen in the diagram of individual PEC data.

Visually, the diagram shows three partially overlapping PEC clusters.

First: a turnout of 20-45% with a share of United Russia of 20-40%, we will conventionally call it “smooth voting”.

Second: the turnout is 40-65%, while the share of United Russia is 35-65%, we will conventionally call it “administrative mobilization”.

Third: a turnout of more than 65% with a share of United Russia of more than 60%, we will conventionally denote it as “alleged gross falsifications”.

Three clusters are also traced in the graph of the number of votes depending on the turnout.

In the “smooth voting” cluster, the number of votes for the ruling party is slightly ahead of the number of votes for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation.

In the “administrative mobilization” cluster, the redistribution of votes is clearly transferred to the United Russia party, and in the “alleged gross falsifications” cluster, the share of the Communist Party’s votes becomes negligible.

The large number of off-site voting raises questions. The average number of voters in the mobile boxes is 60 people, or 9% of the turnout. In a number of cases, there are explanations for the large external activity, we will dwell on this later when considering some PECs. The correlation between the number of ballots in the ballot boxes and the number of votes for the winner of the election is 0.4, i.e. there is practically no connection, and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation has no connection at all coefficient -0.01

Let us consider each TEC and PEC personally with voters who have shown unprecedented activity and unanimity, i.e. showing statistical anomalies. Activity and unanimity cannot be ruled out, but in each personal case it must be somehow explained.

Korolevskaya TEC

Statistics for 122 PECs:

The turnout is average 36%, RMS 11%, minimum 23%, maximum 82%.

The share of United Russia is average 30%, RMS 12%, minimum 19%, maximum 76%.

The share of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation is average 27%, RMS 7%, minimum 3%, maximum 35%.

The average provision of polling stations with ballots is 82% of the registered number of voters.

PEC No. 1054 in the building of the Central Palace of Culture named after M.I. Kalinin, turnout 79%, 76% or 837 votes for United Russia. No comments.

PEC 1080 in the building of the Central Children’s Library, turnout 78%, 73% or 792 votes for United Russia. No comments.

PEC # 1120 in the building of the “Russian School” gymnasium, turnout 74%, 75% or 1587 votes for United Russia. No comments.

PEC No. 3589 in the building of the S.P. Korolev, turnout 82%, 74% or 1154 votes for United Russia. No comments.

PEC No. 3593 in the building of school No. 14, turnout 82%, 75% or 899 votes for United Russia. No comments.

PEC No. 3596 in the building of school No. 14, turnout 81%, 76% or 859 votes for United Russia. No comments.

In total, there are 6128 votes at six PECs, which is 28% of the votes for the party in Korolev. No comments.

PEC No. 3599 in the building of Gymnasium No. 3, turnout 100%, 29% or 149 votes for United Russia, 28% for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. The abnormality is observed only in the turnout, perhaps it is connected with problems with drawing up the protocol or problems with the voter list. The current results include a list of voters of 508 people, although in the last elections there were 1519 of them. While the precinct election commission received 1200 blank ballots for the current elections. It is known that this PEC is equipped with KOIBs.

PEC №1126 in the building of the “Boarding School for the Blind and Visually Impaired”, turnout 100%, 24% or 92 votes for United Russia, 27% for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. Similarly, PEC # 1126, the protocol contains 378 people on the list, although there were 1369 such people in the last elections.

Other similar precincts with 100% turnout in the district are PEC No. 1147, the city of Krasnoarmeysk, Pushkinskaya TEC, PEC # 2735 and PEC 2763 Sergiev Posad TEC. For these five precincts, the turnout was recalculated based on the number of voter lists from previous elections.

At PEC No. 1064, the building of the College of Space Engineering and Technology, PEC No. 1065 and PEC No. 3781 in the building of Lyceum No. 5, the maximum share of votes for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation was observed in the constituency – 35%.

Pushkin TEC

Statistics for 98 PECs:

The turnout is average 37%, RMS 8%, minimum 26%, maximum 78%.

The share of United Russia is average 24%, RMS 5%, minimum 22%, maximum 60%.

The share of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation is average 27%, RMS 7%, minimum 9%, maximum 33%.

The average provision of polling stations with ballots is 75% of the registered number of voters.

PEC No. 2410 in Pushkino in the building of school No. 5, turnout 72%, 78% or 1123 votes for United Russia. No comments.

PEC No. 2449 in the administration building of the village of Muranovo, turnout 60.6%, 53.4% or 937 votes for United Russia, 75% or 1327 voters voted in portable boxes. This PEC has the highest number and share of home voting. The PEC includes the 21st separate operational brigade of the Russian Guard, aka Sofrinskaya. Apparently, the “home-based” voting was organized in the barracks and hostels of the servicemen. The site can be considered typical for “administrative mobilization”, without significant falsifications.

In Pushkinskaya and Sergievo-Posadkaya TECs there are several more PECs to which military units of the Ministry of Defense are assigned, some of the cases of increased “home” voting are connected with this, they also show a picture of “administrative mobilization”.

PEC No. 2465 Sofrino settlement in the building of school No. 1, turnout 67%, 57% or 806 votes for United Russia. No comments.

PEC №2483 in Pushkin in the building of school №11, turnout 70%, 64% or 1392 votes for United Russia. No comments.

Sergiev Posad TEC

Statistics for 157 PECs:

The turnout is average 55%, RMS 13%, minimum 26%, maximum 98%.

The share of United Russia is average 54%, RMS 13%, minimum 26%, maximum 82%.

The share of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation is average 15%, RMS 5%, minimum 2%, maximum 29%.

The average provision of polling stations with ballots is 83% of the registered number of voters.

The locomotive of the United Russia electoral campaign in the district was the current State Duma deputy and former head of the Sergiev Posad region, Sergei Parkhomov, who is a native of Sergiev Posad; he conducted the most active campaign in his hometown. It should be noted that in the turnout / result diagram for Sergiev Posad, even in the “smooth voting” cluster, United Russia is ahead of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation in all PECs without exception.

PEC # 2725 Sergiev Posad in the building of the MBU Sports and Health Center “Luch”, turnout 74%, 70% or 842 votes for United Russia. No comments.

PEC # 2742 in Sergiev Posad in the building of school # 8, turnout 89%, 71% or 903 votes for United Russia. No comments.

PEC # 2743 in Sergiev Posad in the building of school # 8, turnout 79%, 73% or 834 votes for United Russia. No comments.

PEC # 2749 in Sergiev Posad in the building of Children’s Music School # 3, turnout 83.2%, 72% or 790 votes for United Russia. No comments.

PEC No. 2824 in the village of Zelenaya Dubrava in the building of the branch of the Federal State Budgetary Institution “State Scientific Center for Health Care” of the Ministry of Health of Russia, turnout 72%, 82% or 61 voters for United Russia, 9% for Fair Russia, 7% for the Communist Party. Perhaps this is the case of a small mobilized group of like-minded people or, on the contrary, voting under administrative pressure.

PEC No. 4042 in Sergiev Posad in the building of school No. 21, turnout 81%, 75% or 1080 votes for United Russia. No comments.

PEC No. 4059 in Peresvet in the building of school No. 5, turnout 80%, 82% or 775 votes for United Russia. No comments.

PEC No. 4061 in Peresvet in the library building, turnout 81%, 74% or 714 votes for United Russia. No comments.

PEC # 2805, Abramtsevo, in the building of the village administration, turnout of 75%, 41% or 73 votes for United Russia. This is the only site with a high turnout that showed the result of United Russia less than 50%. In this village there is the Abramtsevo State Historical, Artistic and Literary Museum-Reserve.

PEC No. 4233 in SIZO-8 of the Federal Penitentiary Service of Russia for the Moscow Region. 264 voters, 99% turnout, 26% of votes for United Russia. This is the only site in the district where the Liberal Democratic Party won with a result of 29% of the vote.

Evaluation of voting results taking into account the correction of statistical anomalies

A simple classification criterion is applied to assess the voting results for DEC 125, excluding the polling stations with “alleged gross falsification”.

The results of PECs with a share of the United Russia party exceeding 54%, i.e. higher than on site No. 2449, to which the Sofrinskaya 21st separate operational brigade of the Russian Guard belongs, we will conditionally annul it.

The 54% criterion excludes data from 27% or 103 PECs from processing, including 8 at Korolevskaya TEC, 15 at Pushkinskaya TEC and 89 at Sergiev Posad TEC.

Thus, the adjusted voting data show the victory of United Russia in the constituency with a share of 32.9%, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation in second place with a score of 24.2%, A Just Russia in third place with 10.6%.

In the Royal TEC, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation is gaining 27.9%, slightly ahead of United Russia with a share of 27.0%.