androids in space and in the kitchen

We talked with the Chairman of the Board of the Consortium of Robotics and Intelligent Control Systems, Evgeniy Dudorov, about the level at which this base is now, and whether we have enough resources to implement such a large-scale plan.

“Start in kindergarten!”

The first thing we asked Evgeny Aleksandrovich: is it realistic to fulfill the President’s order that the country should soon enter the top 5 in robotization?

The task set is extremely ambitious. But it can be solved. However, let's first figure out where, at what point of reference we are now. And where we will need to go. If we take the position of 2023, then according to the latest data from Rosstat and the Ministry of Industry and Trade we have about 19 robots per 10 thousand jobs, or those employed in production. The parameter we will need to reach is 145 robots per 10 thousand people employed in production.

If we take the general figures, then according to last year’s situation we have 12,841 robots. And by 2030 we will need to reach about 100 thousand. That is, the number of robots needs to be increased 8 times in 6 years. And then we will enter the top 5, yes. We will be somewhere at the UK level. There are currently 98 robots per 10,000 jobs in the UK. But considering that in 6 years, they will also reach approximately this figure – 100 thousand robots. And we, accordingly, must immediately look not at what exists at the current moment, but immediately into the future.

We will be able to look into the future with more confidence when a corresponding federal project appears. And it will appear, most likely, this year. And it will include a whole range of activities aimed at the development of robotics, the development of the component base, the development of software and other various solutions.

Now, of course, it is necessary to accelerate the industry very intensively so that we can all move in this direction together. But we can only accelerate the industry if we clearly understand what procedures we need to follow. At the moment, within the framework of the robotics consortium, we are just trying to outline the tasks that we need to solve in order to achieve the indicated parameters.

Among the tasks that have already acquired their outline is adaptation to the increasing robotization of the educational process, starting… from kindergarten. Yes, since kindergarten! And then – school, secondary specialized, higher education. And, of course, additional professional education, as well as retraining of personnel.

The process must be end-to-end. And it must be related to the introduction or in-depth study of a whole range of subjects related to engineering, programming, and, of course, robotics. At the same time, we must take into account that children who will enter this process, and adults too, must gain knowledge and work on our domestic equipment, with our systems. Only then will we be able to instill a certain culture and build the capacity to develop our technologies. Therefore, everything is feasible. But there are many issues that will need to be worked out

What is needed for a breakthrough?

First of all, money. The federal robotics project will undoubtedly provide some funding for developers. In addition to financial ones, other incentive measures will be prescribed. For example, support for integrators of robotic solutions and those companies that will install robotics.

Of course, Russia has its own specifics regarding the volume and quantity of robotic solutions or industrial robots consumed. Our economy is largely service based. We do not have such a large amount of automotive production and production of microelectronics and electronic components as, for example, in South Korea, where there are about 1012 robots per 10 thousand population. Or in Singapore, where there are 730 robots per 10 thousand population.

But, nevertheless, we have our own industries that require high consumption of industrial robots. These are the manufacturing industry, railways, ferrous metallurgy, oil and gas sector.

At the same time, we see that the line between an industrial robot and a service robot is gradually blurring. Industrial robots are often used in service tasks. And vice versa – service robotics is involved in the tasks of providing industrial enterprises. We also need to pay attention to such moments and, perhaps, make some adjustments, including to take into account the level of robotization in enterprises.

Technological chamomile

Do we have enough of our own technological base?

Unfortunately, it is not enough now. We need to increase it. Let's think of robotics as a daisy. Where the robot is in the center. And around it, like petals, are areas of application. The robot can be used in the air, marine environment, land, space…

To create robots capable of performing certain functions in these areas, there are about 10 key technologies. These are on-board computers, various control systems, navigation systems, technical vision, control points, energy systems, drive equipment, and so on.

So, in terms of key technologies for the development of robotics, we are now somewhere at the 5-6 level of technology readiness. And by 2027 we need to reach level 7, and by 2030 already level 9. And essentially everywhere, in all directions, to ensure mass production.

This is not an easy task due to the fact that for robotics alone, the development and mass production of certain technologies is impractical. But all technologies or solutions, for example, some sensors, drives, gear systems, in fact, can be used both in robots and in other industries (for example, mechanical engineering, automotive industry, aircraft manufacturing, etc.). If we expand the scope of application of technologies, they will develop more intensively. That is, robotics should become an intersectoral industry that will absorb a lot from industrial developments. And at the same time, it will transfer a large number of different solutions to other industries.

By the way, if we return to the image of a chamomile, where the petals are areas of application. The highest percentage of robotization today is observed in the automotive industry, in manufacturing industries – that is, where robots are installed on machines to feed workpieces and, for example, to service the machines.

Where else are there many robots?

In the production of various electronic components and modules. Including for household appliances. That is, most robots are used in those industry segments where certain working conditions are determined, where production is monotonous, where there is a conveyor belt. This is where robotic solutions are actively being integrated.

Logistics robotics is developing at a rapid pace. Everything related to the warehouse, the movement of goods both within warehouses and outside them is one of the most promising areas of development both throughout the world and in the Russian Federation.

Robots are increasingly used in the medical, oil and gas and railway industries. I would like to note that for Russia, the use of robots on Russian Railways will be one of the key drivers of development. Because Russian Railways has a fairly serious infrastructure and requires a large number of people employed in the maintenance cycle and performing tasks. Accordingly, in order to solve all these problems, personnel are needed. And given that an increase in human resources is not expected in the near future, then, of course, robots will be very actively used here. We even created a joint venture with the Telematics and Android Technology holding for robotization in Russian Railways. I am sure that the robotization of transport will continue to take place in an intensive mode. And in the same mode, robots are and will be introduced into the agricultural industry

Sanctions are not scary

How will recent sanctions, including restrictions on software, affect plans for robotization?

Most likely, they won’t have much of an impact. Now software is being replaced very actively. And we see that various domestically produced systems and software are appearing. Well, or, so to speak, a conditionally modified and Russified version. Therefore, in robotics, many developers now create their own software, while making it open source. Therefore, one developer can take software from another and install it on his robot. We don't see any particular problems here. Yes, some issues are arising now, but they can be resolved. And there are companies that are ready to work, and some are already working on creating their own operating system for robots

There is something to be proud of!

Tell us about our unique developments.

We already have developments that I would especially highlight. For example, in the field of logistics robotics, Yandex’s experience is unique. They have introduced their robotic solutions that deliver goods. Yes, similar solutions are applied in China, and in the United States, and in other countries. But how actively this area is developing in Russia and how robotics is positioned in people’s minds, how touching our people are towards delivery robots… This probably doesn’t exist anywhere else. That is, this is generally one of such obvious and very cool examples of the use of robots.

In medicine, we have a number of innovations that we can rightfully be proud of. These are, for example, revolutionary complexes for the rehabilitation of people after a stroke, after injuries and for the rehabilitation of children with cerebral palsy. These complexes have no analogues in the world. They combine robotization and the so-called brain – a machine interface, thanks to which an encephalogram is taken, on the basis of which biofeedback is formed.

I would also highlight the project of the Research Institute of the Russian Railways Automated System as a direction for robotization of railway infrastructure. Within the framework of which, first NPO Android Technology and then the R-Telematics enterprise developed a robot for uncoupling cars, which in real time at speed can synchronize with the train and perform uncoupling.

There are cutting-edge projects related to anthropomorphic robotics. This is what we did 8-10 years ago. I'm talking about the famous robot Fedor. It was created for ground missions. But then we adapted it for space flight. The flight took place almost 5 years ago. It was a unique experiment. Based on this experiment, we are now developing a new robotic complex called Teledroid. And around the middle of next 2025, he will have to fly to the ISS. The robot will perform tasks not only inside, but also on the outer surface of the space station. This robot, like Fedor, is also an anthropomorphic type. True, he only has an upper torso. The Teledroid will be controlled in copy mode: both from the ISS and, in the future, from Earth.

There are also completely unique developments of a more secret, let’s say, nature. And all of the above are unique, breakthrough solutions that no one else has.

Let's look into the future

If you look 20 years into the future, robots will be able to do a lot. And what exactly depends on us. First, how prepared are we for a future surrounded by robots? Secondly, to what extent will we delegate certain tasks to robots? Now there are videos demonstrating the use of various types of robotic systems, including anthropomorphic robots in industrial enterprises. And this is just one of the milestones in the development of robotics.

The use of humanoid systems is assumed in conditionally deterministic or non-deterministic conditions. That is, in those conditions where, in fact, we cannot supply any classical solutions in the form of an industrial manipulator. And it is necessary for the robot to perform functions very similar to those of a human. And at the same time, so that he could not just stand in one place, but also be able to move, analyze something, transmit something, and be able to work with virtually the same tool that a person works with.

I think that in 20 years, along with unmanned cars and unmanned air taxis (although there are more questions here, because everything that goes into the air must meet special safety standards), ground-based robotic systems will appear. Including household ones. That is, humanoid robots will perform useful functions around the house: cleaning the house, working in the kitchen, walking dogs, and the like. Of course, such systems are unlikely to have the same functionality as a person. After all, man has been formed and honed his functionality for many thousands of years. It is impossible to artificially completely reproduce a person. In particular, the motor skills that are hardwired into our manipulators, and the connection between this motor skills and the brain. It is difficult to make a robot that works exactly like a human. But nevertheless, a whole range of function sets can be transferred to these robots. And the time will come when androids will become as integral a part of our lives as phones. Or like cars. Now almost every family has a car, or even two. This is how in the future almost every family will have a home robot.

Actually, that’s why many car companies are now taking up anthropomorphic robotics. They see the future in this. The path to get there will be difficult. Serious investments are required. But automakers are moving in this direction. In a certain number of years, they are ready to produce at their factories not cars, but anthropomorphic robots, sell them through their trusted dealer systems, and service them there. All that remains is to introduce a new product to the market. Where the future lies with robotic systems that are useful to humans.

Rise of the Machines: Is it Real?

Now many say that the intensive development of AI carries some risks. In this regard, of course, the question arises: what about the intensive development of robots equipped with AI? Are we facing a machine uprising like in the Terminator films?

I believe that first of all you should be afraid not of robots, but of people. Why? Because a person is prone to using force, a person is prone to various, often inappropriate actions, and to making emotional decisions. And sometimes a very serious person does not act entirely wisely. This is where the danger lies.

Artificial intelligence as such is not a threat. A threat arises only when advances fall into the hands of a bad person who can use AI in some negative situation. And if AI ends up in the hands of a person who understands and intelligently perceives various levels of tasks, and who tries to act for the good, then, in principle, there should be no problems. Therefore, it is still necessary to ensure that artificial intelligence does not end up in illegal areas or in bad conditions.

In addition, the notorious artificial intelligence can cause harm within a certain network. But it will not be possible to rebuild the robot’s functionality so that it fulfills the negative scenario in the next 20-50 years. Therefore, you should not be afraid of the uprising of machines, the fact that they will suddenly begin to associate themselves differently and begin to fight for a place in the sun with people. Most likely, this will not happen.

Thanks to Evgeniy Alexandrovich for reassuring us! Now we can confidently look to the future – both to the near future, where Russia will truly become a leader in robotization, and to the distant future, where a home android will make us coffee in the morning and do all the housework.

Thank you for your attention, we will be glad to hear your opinion on the development of robotics in the comments.