70% of the world will be unemployed by 2030. What's next? Will a basic income help? or Apocalypse on a napkin

From the optimism of optimists that the AI ​​gray wolf is not afraid of him. Like, all these technologies already existed, everyone was afraid, but in the end everything was fine – people found work. I just had an attack, I couldn’t stand it and freaked out. I did the math on a napkin to see what the numbers are at the moment, who we’ll be looking for a new job at, and how many new jobs we can get. This is a napkin, not a scientific article with in-depth research, but dipping me in the comments is very welcome. Well, whoever reads to the end, well done.

Let's look at industrial revolutions and their impact on jobs. First Industrial Revolution occurred from 1760 to 1840. About 1.5 million jobs were lost, mostly handloom weavers and spinners. They were replaced by 1.3 million new factory workers, mechanics and engineers. The term is 80 years.

Second Industrial Revolutionfrom 1840 to 1914, also took its toll. About 3 million jobs were lost (including 50% of textile workers). They were replaced by 4 million workers in new industries such as mechanical engineering and electrical systems. The term is 74 years.

Third Industrial Revolutionfrom 1960 to 2000, resulted in the loss of approximately 5 million jobs due to automation. Production line operators and cashiers were at risk. In return, 1.5 million new IT jobs emerged, including software developers and automation specialists. Duration: 40 years.

Now let's get to the current situation. We are on the threshold of the fourth industrial revolution, which began in 2000. My prediction is that around 2.5 billion jobs could be lost by 2030 if AI continues to advance at its current rate. If we talk about current figures, there are about 5 billion people working in the world. This includes approximately 1.3 billion in agriculture, 500 million in industry, 2.5 billion in services, 100 million teachers, 9 million doctors and 20 million nurses, 40 million construction workers, more than 200 million trade workers, 15 million drivers , 8 million specialists in scientific research, 26 million programmers, 10 million artists and about 50 million managers. All these professions are under attack. (I used open sources)

It is important to understand that 2.5 billion jobs is still a good scenario if only 50% of the jobs are replaced. Here it is worth asking the question: when exactly will AGI appear? If this happens within 3 years, it could reach up to 70% losses, which would amount to about 3.5 billion jobs. Not only 95%, at the expense of third world countries that will not be able to implement technology and will continue to work with their hands.

Regarding the creation of new jobs, in an optimistic scenario we can expect new professions in areas that will develop in parallel with AI and automation. For example, in the field of AI development and maintenance, data management, big data analysis and work, AI ethics, as well as in new industries related to the green economy and sustainable development. However, the number of new jobs in these areas may be only 120-125 million, which is absolutely not enough to compensate for the losses.

Cameron scared me with terminators, but it looks like the devil has arrived now and no one cares about it)

Shall we continue?

For some reason, there are no public comments on the topic of dying professions, but many messages with different reactions appeared in the direct message – from denial to anger, bargaining and depression. People wonder: how to live in these conditions? I want to bring to your attention an interesting situation from Los Angeles, California.

There, laws allow you to take anything out of the store, up to a thousand dollars at a time. More precisely, it’s not that it’s completely legal.

Благодаря Пропозиции 47 (Proposition 47), кражи на сумму до $950 считаются мелким правонарушением (misdemeanor). Это не значит, что их можно совершать безнаказанно, просто наказания теперь мягче: штраф или небольшой срок. Полиция часто не преследует такие преступления, и из-за этого люди выносят товары прямо на глазах у сотрудников, которые не хотят рисковать.

Very similar to this strange basic income. People come back and take again, but the police can’t do anything. Stores are going out of business and closing, and authorities accuse store owners of bias and racism because they close stores in disadvantaged neighborhoods but not in prosperous ones.

Of course, you can’t get houses and cars this way yet, but in Spain there are so-called “okupas” who can break into your house and live there for free until they evict you in court – and this can take about two years.

This is mainly done by those who do not work, and the authorities cannot do anything about it. But the question is: what will happen when almost everyone doesn’t work?